The Queen of Cuba

SPEAKER_06: Pushkin. SPEAKER_05: The one thing we can never get more of is time. Or can we? This is Watson X Orchestrate. AI designed to multiply productivity by automating tasks. When you Watson X your business, you can build digital skills to help human resources spend less time generating offer letters, writing job recs and managing schedules, and spend more time on humans. Let's create more time for your business with Watson X Orchestrate. Learn more at ibm.com slash orchestrate. IBM. Let's create. SPEAKER_04: You can find inspiring stories almost anywhere. For instance, check out the co-founders of Girls Who Do Interiors. This Miami-based design company was started by three friends when they were still in school. And right from the start, they turned to Chase for Business for everything from banking and payment acceptance to credit cards. And they handled them all in one place with the Chase mobile app. It's so important to have that kind of help when you're just starting out. Learn more at chaseforbusiness.com. Make more of what's yours. Chase mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JP Morgan Chase Bank and a member FDIC. SPEAKER_07: From Pushkin Industries and Ruby Studio at iHeartMedia, Incubation is a new show about humanity's struggle against the world's tiniest villains, viruses. I'm Jacob Goldstein. And on this show, you'll hear how viruses attack us, how we fight back and what we've learned in the course of those fights. Listen to Incubation on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. SPEAKER_04: This episode contains explicit language. SPEAKER_06: Revisionist history listeners, Malcolm Gladwell here. I've written a new book called Talking to Strangers, and it's about the mistakes we make in our interactions with people we don't know. Talking to Strangers features con artists and sociopaths and spies. It talks about how drinking affects the way we make sense of others. I spent time with a psychologist who ran the CIA's interrogation program and the man who spotted Bernie Madoff before anyone else. And I try to get to the bottom of a heartbreaking encounter between a police officer and a civilian, which resulted in the death of a young woman named Sandra Bland in Texas. I think it's a book that will prompt a lot of conversations and arguments, which, as you know from revisionist history, is what I like to do. I'm very proud of it. And there's something else I'm proud of with Talking to Strangers. After making four seasons of revisionist history, I've fallen in love with the kind of storytelling that can be done through a podcast. And I decided that I wanted to bring that same approach to the audiobook of Talking to Strangers. Normally an audiobook is just the author or someone the author hires reading into a microphone. I didn't want to do that. I wanted to make this audiobook of Talking to Strangers as compelling as an episode of revisionist history. So if you listen to the audiobook, you'll hear the voices of the people I interview. And if I'm describing some historical event, you'll hear archival tape. For courtroom scenes, we have actors reimagining what happened. There's music, an extraordinary song by Janelle Monae, scoring. We even have excerpts from other audiobooks and podcasts, like the fantastic Believed from NPR and Michigan Radio. I think the result is a completely different kind of audiobook experience, much more powerful, moving, engrossing. Anyway, rather than describe it, I thought I would give you a special preview. So here it is. Chapter three of Talking to Strangers done the new way. Let's take a look at another Cuban spy story. In the early 1990s, thousands of Cubans began to flee the regime of Fidel Castro. They cobbled together crude boats made of inner tubes and metal drums and wooden doors and any number of other stray parts and set out on a desperate voyage across the 90 miles of the Florida straits to the United States. By one estimate, as many as 24,000 people died attempting the journey. It was a human rights disaster. In response, a group of Cuban emigres in Miami founded Hermanos L. Roscati, Brothers to the Rescue. They put together a makeshift air force of single-engine Cessna Skymasters and took to the skies over the Florida straits, searching for refugees from the air and radioing their coordinates to the Coast Guard. Hermanos L. Roscati saved thousands of lives. They became heroes. As time passed, the emigres grew more ambitious. They began flying into Cuban airspace, dropping leaflets on Havana urging the Cuban people to rise up against Castro's regime. The Cuban government, already embarrassed by the flight of refugees, was outraged. Tensions rose, coming to a head on February 24, 1996. That afternoon, three Hermanos L. Roscati planes took off for the Florida straits. As they neared the Cuban coastline, two Cuban Air Force MiG fighter jets shot down two of the planes out of the sky, killing all four people aboard. The response to the attack was immediate. The United States Security Council passed a resolution denouncing the Cuban government. A grave President Clinton held a press conference. SPEAKER_03: Ladies and gentlemen, I have just been briefed by the National Security Advisor on the shooting down today in broad daylight of two American civilian airplanes by Cuban military aircraft. SPEAKER_06: The Cuban emigre population in Miami was furious. The two planes had been shot down in international airspace, making the incident tantamount to an act of war. The radio chatter among the Cuban pilots was released to the press. We hit them, Cajones. We hit them. We retired them, Cajones. We hit them, fuckers. Mark the place where we retired them. This one won't fuck with us anymore. And then, after one of the MiGs zeroed in on the second Cessna, Homeland or death, you bastards. But in the midst of the controversy, the story suddenly shifted. A retired U.S. Rear Admiral named Eugene Carroll gave an interview to CNN. Carroll was an influential figure inside Washington. He had formerly served as director of all U.S. armed forces in Europe with 7,000 weapons at his disposal. Just before the Hermanos-El-Rescate shoot down, Carroll said, he and a small group of military analysts had met with top Cuban officials. CNN's Kathryn Calloway interviewed Carroll to try and make sense of it all. Admiral, can you tell me what happened on your trip to Cuba? Who you spoke with and what you were told? Then Carroll says, we were hosted by the Ministry of Defense, General Rosales del Toro. We traveled around, inspected Cuban bases, Cuban schools, their partially completed nuclear power plant, and so on. In long discussions with General Rosales del Toro and his staff, the question came up about these overflights from U.S. aircraft, not government aircraft, but private airplanes operating out of Miami. They asked us, what would happen if we shot one of those down? We can, you know. Carroll says he interpreted that question from his Cuban hosts as a thinly veiled warning. Then Calloway asks, so when you returned, who did you relay this information to? Carroll replies, as soon as we could make appointments, we discussed the situation with members of the State Department and members of the Defense Intelligence Agency. The Defense Intelligence Agency, the DIA, is the third arm of the foreign intelligence triumvirate in the U.S. government, along with the CIA and the National Security Agency. If Carroll had met with the State Department and the DIA, he had delivered the Cuban warning about as high up in the American government as you could go. And did the State Department and the DIA take those warnings to heart? Did they step in and stop Hermanos El Rescate from continuing their reckless forays into Cuban airspace? Obviously not. Carroll's comments ricocheted around Washington, D.C. policy circles. This was an embarrassing revelation. The Cuban shoot-down happened on February 24th. Carroll's warnings to the State Department and DIA were delivered on February 23rd. A prominent Washington insider met with U.S. officials the day before the crisis, explicitly warned them that the Cubans had lost patience with Hermanos El Rescate, and his warning was ignored. What began as a Cuban atrocity was now transformed into a story about American diplomatic incompetence. By February 25th, when Carroll spoke with CNN, it's clear this perception had already sunk in. Fidel Castro wasn't being invited onto CNN to defend himself, but he didn't need to be. He had a rear admiral making his case. Does anything about Admiral Carroll and the Cuban shoot-downs strike you as odd? There are an awful lot of coincidences here. First, the Cubans plan a deliberate, murderous attack on U.S. citizens flying in international airspace. Second, it just so happens that the day before the attack, a prominent military insider delivers a stern warning to U.S. officials about the possibility of exactly that action. And third, that warning fortuitously puts that same official, the day after the attack, in a position to make the Cuban case on one of the world's most respected news networks. The timing of those three events is a little too perfect, isn't it? If you were a public relations firm trying to mute the fallout from a very controversial action, that's exactly how you'd script it. Have a seemingly neutral expert available right away to say, I warned them. This is what a military counterintelligence analyst named Reg Brown thought in the days after the incident. Brown worked on the Latin American desk of the Defense Intelligence Agency. His job was to understand the ways in which the Cuban intelligence services were trying to influence American military operations. His business, in other words, was to be alert to the kinds of nuances, subtleties, and unexplained coincidences that the rest of us ignore. And Brown couldn't shake the feeling that somehow the Cubans had orchestrated the whole crisis. It turned out, for example, that the Cubans had a source inside Hermanos L. Roscati, a pilot named Juan Pablo Roque. On the day before the attack, Roque had disappeared and resurfaced at Castro's side in Havana. Clearly, Roque told his bosses back home that Hermanos L. Roscati had something planned for the 24th. That made it very difficult for Brown to imagine that the date of the Carroll briefing had been chosen by chance. For maximum public relations impact, the Cubans would want their warning delivered the day before, wouldn't they? That way, the State Department and the DIA couldn't wiggle out of the problem by saying that the warning was vague or long ago. Carroll's words were right in front of them on the day the pilots took off from Miami. So who arranged that meeting, Brown wondered. Who picked February 23rd? He did some digging, and the name he came up with startled him. It was a colleague of his at the DIA, a Cuba expert named Ana Belen Montes. Ana Montes was a star. She had been selected repeatedly for promotions and special career opportunities, showered with accolades and bonuses. Her reviews were glowing. She had come to the DIA from the Department of Justice, and in his recommendation, one of her former supervisors described her as the best employee he had ever had. She once got a medal from George Tennant, the director of the CIA. Her nickname inside the intelligence community was the Queen of Cuba. Weeks passed. Brown agonized. To accuse a colleague of treachery on the basis of such semi-paranoid speculation was an awfully big step, especially when the colleague was someone of Montes' stature. Finally, Brown made up his mind, taking his suspicions to a DIA counterintelligence officer named Scott Carmichael. He came over, and we walked in the neighborhoods around there for a while during lunch hour. SPEAKER_06: This is Carmichael talking about his first meeting with Reg Brown. SPEAKER_11: And I think it was during that lunch hour he hardly even got to Montes. I mean, most of it was listening to him saying, oh God, he's reading his hands saying I don't want to do the wrong thing, yada yada yada. SPEAKER_06: Slowly, Carmichael drew him out. Brown had more evidence. He'd written a report in the late 1980s detailing the involvement of senior Cuban officials in international drug smuggling. SPEAKER_11: He identified specific Cuban, senior Cuban officers, including I think a general officer, and some lesser officers, who were directly involved, and then provided the specifics. I mean, flights, the dates, time, the places, who did what, the home, the whole enchilada. SPEAKER_06: Then a few days before Brown's report was released, the Cubans rounded up everyone he'd mentioned in his investigation, executed a number of them, and issued a public denial. SPEAKER_11: And Reg went, what the fuck? SPEAKER_06: There was a leak. It made Reg Brown paranoid. In 1994, two Cuban intelligence officers had defected and told a similar story. The Cubans had someone high inside American intelligence. So, what was he to think, Brown said to Carmichael? Didn't he have reason to be suspicious? Then he told Carmichael the other thing that had happened during the Hermanos-Alrascate crisis. Montes worked at the DIA's office on Bowling Air Force Base in the Anacostia section of Washington, D.C. When the planes were shot down, she was called into the Pentagon. If you were one of the government's leading Cuba experts, you were needed at the scene. The shoot-down happened on a Saturday. The following evening, Brown happened to telephone, asking for Montes. He said some woman answered the phone and told him that Ana had left, Carmichael says. Earlier in the day, Montes had gotten a phone call, and afterwards she'd been agitated. Then she'd told everyone in the Situation Room that she was tired, that there was nothing going on, that she was going home. SPEAKER_11: Reg was just absolutely incredulous. This was just so counter to our culture that he couldn't even believe it. Everybody understands that when a crisis occurs, you're called in because you have some expertise that can add to the decision-making processes. SPEAKER_06: Here, Scott Carmichael starts thumping to make his point. From the Pentagon, you were available until you were dismissed. SPEAKER_11: That's just understood. You know, if somebody of that level calls you in because all of a sudden it was North Koreans and Lawrence and Michelin, San Francisco, you don't just decide to leave when you get tired and hungry. Everybody understands that. SPEAKER_06: And yet she did that. And Reg was just... In Reg Brown's thinking, if Montes really worked for the Cubans, they would have been desperate to hear from her. They would want to know what was happening in the Situation Room. Did she have a meeting that night with her handler? It was all a bit far-fetched, which is why Brown was so conflicted, but there were Cuban spies. He knew that. And here was this woman taking a personal phone call and heading out the door in the middle of what was, for a Cuba specialist, just about the biggest crisis in a generation. And on top of that, she's the one who would arrange the awfully convenient Admiral Carroll briefing? Brown told Carmichael that the Cubans had wanted to shoot down one of the Germanos-El Rescate planes for years. But they hadn't, because they knew what a provocation that would be. It might serve as the excuse the United States needed to depose Fidel Castro or launch an invasion. To the Cubans, it wasn't worth it. Unless, that is, they could figure out some way to turn public opinion in their favor. That's why you look at that one. SPEAKER_11: Holy shit. I'm looking at a Cuban counterintelligence influence operation to spin a story. And I was the one who led the effort to meet with Admiral Carroll. What the hell is that all about? SPEAKER_06: Months passed. Brown persisted. Finally, Scott Carmichael pulled Montez file. She had passed her most recent polygraph with flying colors. She didn't have a secret drinking problem or unexplained sums in her bank account. She had no red flags. SPEAKER_11: After I reviewed the security files and the personnel files on her, I thought, Reg, way off the page here. This woman is like, she's going to be the next Director of Intelligence for DIA. SPEAKER_06: She's just fabulous. He knew that in order to justify an investigation on the basis of speculation, he had to be meticulous. Reg Brown, he said, was coming apart. He had to satisfy Brown's suspicions one way or another, as he put it, to document the living shit out of everything because if word got out that Montez was under suspicion, I knew I was going to be facing a shitstorm. Carmichael called Montez in. They met in a conference room at Bowling Air Force Base. She was attractive, intelligent, slender, with short hair and sharp, almost severe features. Carmichael thought to himself, this woman is impressive. SPEAKER_11: She sat down and she was sitting like almost next to me about that far away. SPEAKER_06: Here Carmichael holds his hands three feet apart. SPEAKER_11: Same side of the table kind of thing. And she crossed her legs. I don't think that she did it on purpose. I don't think she did it. I think she was just getting comfortable. I happen to be a leg man. She couldn't have known that. I mean, I like legs. I know that I glanced down. SPEAKER_06: He asked her about the Admiral Carroll meeting. She had an answer. It wasn't her idea at all. The son of someone she knew at DIA had accompanied Carroll to Cuba and she'd gotten a call afterward. I know his dad. SPEAKER_11: His dad called me and he said, hey, you know, if you want the latest scoop on, you should go see Admiral Carroll. And so I just called up Admiral Carroll and we looked at our schedules and decided the 23rd of February was the most convenient date that works for both of us. And that was it. SPEAKER_06: As it turned out, Carmichael knew the DIA employee she was talking about. He told her that he was going to call him up and corroborate her story. And she said, please do. So what happened with the phone call in the situation room? He asked her. She said she didn't remember getting a phone call. And to Carmichael, it seemed as though she was being honest. It had been a crazy hectic day nine months before. What about leaving early? She said, well, yeah, I did leave. SPEAKER_11: So right away, she's admitting to that. And she's not denying stuff, which might be a little suspicious. She said, yeah, I did leave early that day. And she said, you know, it was on a Sunday. Cafeterias were closed. I'm a very picky eater. I have allergies, so I don't eat stuff out of vending machines. I got there around 6 o'clock in the morning. It was about 8 o'clock at night. I'm starving to death. Nothing was going on. They didn't really need me. So I just decided I was going to get out of there, go home and eat something. And that rang true with me. SPEAKER_06: It did. After the interview, Carmichael set out to double check her answers. The date of the briefing really did seem like a coincidence. Her friend's son had gone to Cuba with Carol. And I learned that, yeah, she does have allergies. SPEAKER_11: She's very particular about what she eats. I thought she's there on the Pentagon Sunday. I've been there. The cafeteria's not open. She went all day long without eating. She went home. I said, well, it kind of made sense. So what do I have? I don't have anything. SPEAKER_06: Carmichael went back to Reg Brown and told him not to worry. He turned his attention to other matters. Ana Montes went back to her office. All was forgotten and forgiven until one day in 2001, five years later, when it was discovered that every night, Montes had gone home, typed up from memory all of the facts and insights she had learned that day at work, and sent it to her handlers in Havana. From the day she joined the DIA, Montes had been a Cuban spy. In the classic spy novel, the secret agent is slippery and devious. We're hoodwinked by the brilliance of the enemy. That was the way many CIA insiders explained the way Florentino Aspiaga's revelations. Castro is a genius. The agents were brilliant actors. In truth, however, the most dangerous spies are rarely diabolical. Aldrich Ames, maybe the most damaging traitor in American history, had mediocre performance reviews, a drinking problem, and didn't even try to hide all the money he was getting from the Soviet Union for his spying. Ana Montes was scarcely any better. Right before she was arrested, the DIA found the codes she used to send her dispatches to Havana. Where did they find those codes? In her purse. And in her apartment, she had a shortwave radio in a shoebox in her closet. Brian Littel, the CIA Cuba specialist who witnessed the Aspiaga disaster, knew Montes well. He used to work as something called a National Intelligence Officer, NIO. SPEAKER_08: She used to sit across the table from me at meetings that I convened when I was NIO. SPEAKER_08: I would try to engage her and she would always give me these strange reactions. When I would try to pin her down at some of these meetings that I convened, I would try to pin her down on, what do you think is infidel? What do you think Fidel's motives are about this? She would fumble. In retrospect, the deer with the headlights in his eyes. She blocked. She would even, physically, she would show some kind of reactions that caused me to think, she's nervous because she's just such a terrible analyst. She doesn't know what to say. SPEAKER_06: One year later, Littel says, Montes was accepted into the CIA's Distinguished Analyst Program, a research sabbatical available to intelligence officers from across the government. Where did she ask to go? Cuba, of course. She went to Cuba, funded by this program. SPEAKER_08: Can you imagine? SPEAKER_06: If you were a Cuban spy trying to conceal your intentions, would you request a paid sabbatical in Havana? Littel was speaking almost 20 years after it happened, but the brazenness of her behavior still astounded him. She went to Cuba as a CIA Distinguished Intelligence Analyst. SPEAKER_08: Of course, they were delighted to have her, especially on our nickel. And I'm sure that they gave her all kinds of clandestine tradecraft training while she was there. I suspect, can't prove it, I'm pretty sure she met with Fidel. Fidel loved to meet with his principal agents. He loved to meet with them, to encourage them, to congratulate them, to revel in the success that they were having together against the CIA. SPEAKER_06: When Montes came back to the Pentagon, she wrote a paper in which she didn't even bother to hide her biases. There should have been all kinds of red flags raised and gongs that went off SPEAKER_08: when her paper was read by her supervisors, because she said things about the Cuban military that make absolutely no sense, except from their point of view. SPEAKER_06: But did anyone raise those red flags? Littel says he never once suspected she was a spy. SPEAKER_08: On the contrary, there were CIA officers of my rank, or close to my rank, who thought she was the best Cuban analyst there was. I never trusted her, but for the wrong reasons. And it's one of my great regrets. I always believed, I was convinced, that she was a terrible analyst on Cuba. Well, she was, wasn't she, objectively? Because she wasn't working for us. She was working for Fidel. But I never connected the dots. SPEAKER_06: Nor did anyone else. Ana Montes had a younger brother named Tito, who was an FBI agent. He had no idea. Montes' sister was also an FBI agent, who in fact played a key role in exposing a ring of Cuban spies in Miami. She had no idea. Montes' boyfriend worked for the Pentagon as well. His specialty, believe it or not, was Latin American intelligence. His job was to go up against spies like his girlfriend. He had no idea. When Montes was finally arrested, the chief of her section called her coworkers together and told them the news. People started crying in disbelief. The DIA had psychologists lined up to provide on-site counseling services. Her supervisor was devastated. None of them had any idea. In her cubicle, she had a quotation from Shakespeare's Henry V, taped to her wall at eye level, for all the world to see. The king hath note of all that they intend by interception, which they dream not of. Or, to put it a bit more plainly, the Queen of Cuba takes note of all that the U.S. intends by means that all around her do not dream of. The issue with spies is not that there is something brilliant about them. It is that there is something wrong with us. We'll be back after this. SPEAKER_05: The one thing we can never get more of is time. Or can we? This is Watson X Orchestrate. AI designed to multiply productivity by automating tasks. When you Watson X your business, you can build digital skills to help human resources spend less time generating offer letters, writing job recs and managing schedules, and spend more time on humans. Let's create more time for your business with Watson X Orchestrate. Learn more at ibm.com slash orchestrate. IBM. Let's create. SPEAKER_06: Do you know that right now, as you listen to this, is an astronaut named Frank Rubio in some tiny spacecraft way, way up there in space. He left for the International Space Station in September of last year, thought he was going for six months, and then once he was up there, NASA called him up and said, actually, Frank, we want you out there for a year. 371 days to be exact. My question is, if you're NASA and you pull that bait and switch once, how do you recruit the next crop of astronauts? I mean, you say to your recruits, I need you to leave your family and friends and everything you know and love dearly. Eat food out of a tube, but only for six months. And they're like, wait, look at Frank. That's what you told him. And he's still up there. Recruiting for astronauts. If you're NASA is hard. If only there was some sophisticated job recruiting site capable of finding those few Americans who are perfectly happy to float around in space for an undetermined length of time. Sadly for NASA, there's no such tool. But for the rest of us, oh yes, there is. ZipRecruiter. New hires cost on average $4,700 for all of us non-spaceflight companies. And with that kind of money at stake, you have to get it right. So what's the most effective way to find the right people for your roles? ZipRecruiter. See for yourself. Right now you can try it for free at ziprecruiter.com slash Gladwell and experience the value ZipRecruiter brings to hiring. Once you post your job, ZipRecruiter's smart technology works quickly to identify people whose skills and experience line up with exactly what you want. It's simple. ZipRecruiter helps you get hiring right. Four out of five employers who post on ZipRecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. See for yourself. Go to this exclusive web address to try ZipRecruiter for free before you commit. ZipRecruiter.com slash Gladwell. Again, that's ZipRecruiter.com slash G-L-A-D-W-E-L-L. ZipRecruiter. The smartest way to hire. Somewhere out there, believe it or not, there's someone who wants Frank Rubio's job. I'm looking for a sofa. A pursuit by the way, which has consumed far too many hours of my life. And then I found Article, and I'll tell you what I'm getting. A Svengras sectional in green velvet, which will be in my living room by the end of the month for a fraction of what the other fancy sofa makers are charging. And this is my favorite part from the product description. Some assembly required approximately five minutes. Five minutes. Article has a curated assortment of mid-century modern coastal industrial Scandian boho designs that make furniture shopping simple. And Article offers fast, affordable shipping across the US and Canada. Plus they don't leave you waiting around. You pick delivery time and they'll send you updates every step of the way. Article is offering our listeners $50 off their first purchase of $100 or more. To claim, visit Article.com slash Gladwell, and the discount will be automatically applied at checkout. That's Article.com slash Gladwell for $50 off your first purchase of $100 or more. We're back with more from this excerpt of my new book, Talking to Strangers. Over the course of his career, the psychologist Tim Levine has conducted hundreds of versions of the same simple experiment. He invites students to his laboratory and gives them a trivia test. What's the highest mountain in Asia? That kind of thing. If they answer the questions correctly, they win a cash prize. To help them out, they're given a partner, someone they've never met before, who is unknown to them working for Levine. There's also an instructor in the room named Rachel. Midway through the test, Rachel suddenly gets called away. She leaves and goes upstairs. Then the carefully scripted performance begins. The partner says, I don't know about you, but I could use the money. I think the answers were left right there. He points to an envelope lying in plain sight on the desk. SPEAKER_10: So it's up to them whether they cheat or not. And then later we interview them asking, did you cheat? SPEAKER_06: This is Tim Levine. He says in about 30% of cases, the research subjects do cheat. Levine's theories are laid out in his book, Dooped, Truth Default Theory and the Social Science of Lying and Deception. If you want to understand how deception works, there is no better place to start. The number of scholars around the world who study human deception is vast. There are more theories about why we lie and how to detect those lies than there are about the Kennedy assassination. In that crowded field, Levine stands out. He has carefully constructed a unified theory about deception. And at the core of that theory are the insights he gained from that first trivia quiz study. I watched videotape of a dozen or so post experiment interviews with Levine in his office at the University of Alabama in Birmingham. Because of privacy regulations, we can't play them for you here, but we're going to reenact them. Here's the first. The interviewer and the subject, a slightly spaced out young man. Let's call him Philip. SPEAKER_09: All right. So, have you played Trivial Pursuit games before? SPEAKER_08: Not very much, but I think I have. SPEAKER_09: Okay. So in the current game, did you find the questions difficult? SPEAKER_08: Yes. Some were. Yes. Yes. Some were. I was like, well, what is that? SPEAKER_09: If you would scale them on one to 10, if one was easy and 10 was difficult, where do you think you would put them? SPEAKER_03: I would put them at an eight. SPEAKER_09: At an eight. Yeah. SPEAKER_06: They're pretty tricky. Philip is then told that he and his partner did very well in the test. The interviewer asks him why. SPEAKER_10: Teamwork. SPEAKER_09: Teamwork? SPEAKER_08: Yeah. SPEAKER_09: Okay. All right. So now I called Rachel out of the room briefly. When she was gone, did you cheat? SPEAKER_08: I guess. No. SPEAKER_06: Philip looks away. Are you telling the truth? SPEAKER_06: Yes. SPEAKER_09: Okay. So when I interview your partner and I ask her, what is she going to say? SPEAKER_06: At this point, there's an uncomfortable silence, as if the student is trying to get his story straight. He's obviously thinking very hard, Levine said. SPEAKER_09: No. SPEAKER_09: No? SPEAKER_08: Yeah. SPEAKER_09: Okay. All right. Well, that's all I need from you. SPEAKER_06: Is Philip telling the truth? Levine has shown the Philip videotape to hundreds of people, and nearly every viewer correctly pegs Philip as a cheater. As the partner confirmed to Levine, Philip looked inside the answer-filled envelope the minute Rachel left the room. In his exit interview, he lied, and it's obvious. So like everybody gets this guy right. SPEAKER_10: Yeah. Everybody thinks he's a cheater. SPEAKER_06: He has no conviction. Right. He's ugh. SPEAKER_10: He's masked him out. He's messed him up. He's a version. He can't even keep a straight face. SPEAKER_06: Right. Philip was easy. SPEAKER_06: But the more tapes we looked at, the harder it got. Here's a second case. Let's call him Lucas. He was handsome, articulate, confident. Here he is talking to the interviewer. SPEAKER_09: It's safe to ask. When Rachel left the room, did I cheat your card? SPEAKER_08: No. SPEAKER_09: No? Are you telling me the truth? SPEAKER_11: Yes, I am. SPEAKER_09: When I interview your partner and I ask her the same question, what do you think she's going to say? SPEAKER_06: Same thing. Oh, is he lying? Yeah. Yeah, he is good, isn't he? Everybody believes him, Levine said. I believed him. Lucas was lying. Levine and I spent the better part of a morning watching his trivia quiz videotapes. By the end, I was ready to throw up my hands. I had no idea what to make of anyone. The point of Levine's research was to try and answer one of the biggest puzzles in human psychology. Why are we so bad at detecting lies? You'd think we'd be good at it. Logic says it would be very useful for human beings to know when they're being deceived. Evolution over many millions of years should have favored people with the ability to pick up on the subtle signs of deception, but it hasn't. In one iteration of his experiment, Levine divided his tapes in half, 22 liars and 22 truth tellers. On average, the people watching the videos correctly identified the liars 56% of the time. Other psychologists have tried similar versions of the same experiment. The average for all of them, 54%. Just about everyone is terrible. Police officers, judges, therapists, even CIA officers running big spy networks. Everyone. Why? Tim Levine's answer is called Truth Default Theory, or TDT. Levine's theory started with an insight that came from one of his graduate students. He soon parked. It was right at the beginning of Levine's research when he was as baffled as the rest of his profession about why we are all so bad at something that by rights we should be good at. Our big insight, the first one, was in the 54% deception accuracy thing. SPEAKER_10: That's averaging across truths and lies. And you come to a very different understanding if you break out truths, how much people are right on truths and how much people are right on lies. SPEAKER_06: What he means is this. If I tell you that your accuracy rate on Levine's videos is right around 50%, the natural assumption is to think that you are just randomly guessing. That you have no idea what you're doing. But Park's observation was that's not true. We're much better than chance at correctly identifying the students who are telling the truth. But we're much worse than chance at correctly identifying the students who are lying. We go through all those videos and we guess true, true, true, which means we get most of the truthful interviews right and most of the liars wrong. We have a default to truth. Our operating assumption is that the people that we're dealing with are honest. Levine says his own experiment is an almost perfect illustration of this phenomenon. He invites people to play a trivia game for money. Suddenly the instructor is called out of the room and she just happens to leave the answers to the test in plain view on her desk. Levine says that, logically, the subject should roll their eyes at this point. They're college students. They're not stupid. They've signed up for a psychological experiment. They're given a partner, whom they've never met, who is egging them on to cheat. You would think that they might be even a little suspicious that things are not as they seem. But no. SPEAKER_10: So they catch that the leaving the room might be a setup. The thing they almost never catch is that their partner's a student. Oh, I see. SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, yeah. So it's interesting what they suspect. SPEAKER_10: So they think that there might be hidden cameras. Yeah. Right. They think it might be a setup because experiments are setups. SPEAKER_06: But this nice person they're talking and chatting to? They never question it. To snap out of truth default mode requires what Levine calls a trigger. A trigger is not the same as a suspicion or the first sliver of doubt. We fall out of truth default mode only when the case against our initial assumption becomes definitive. We do not behave, in other words, like sober-minded scientists slowly gathering evidence of the truth or falsity of something before reaching a conclusion. We do the opposite. We start by believing. And we stop believing only when our doubts and misgivings rise to the point where we can no longer explain them away. This proposition sounds at first like the kind of hair-splitting that social scientists love to engage in. It is not. It is a profound point that explains a lot of otherwise puzzling behavior. Consider for example one of the most famous findings in all of psychology. Stanley Milgram's obedience experiment. In 1961, Milgram recruited volunteers from New Haven to take part in what he said was a memory experiment. Each volunteer was met by a somber, imposing young man named John Williams who explained that they were going to play the role of teacher in the experiment. Williams introduced them to another volunteer, a pleasant middle-aged man named Mr. Wallace. Mr. Wallace, they were told, was to be the learner. He would sit in an adjoining room wired to a complicated apparatus capable of delivering electrical shocks up to 450 volts. If you're curious about what 450 volts feels like, it's just shy of the amount of electrical shock that leaves tissue damage. The teacher volunteer was instructed to give the learner a series of memory tasks, and each time the learner failed, the volunteer was to punish him with an ever-greater electrical shock in order to see whether the threat of punishment affected someone's ability to perform memory tasks. As the shocks escalated, Wallace would cry out in pain, and ultimately he started hammering on the walls. But if the teacher wavered, the imposing instructor would urge them on. Please continue. The experiment requires that you continue. It is absolutely essential that you continue. You have no other choice. You must go on. The reason the Milgram experiment is so famous is that virtually all of the volunteers complied. 65% ended up administering the maximum dose to the hapless learner. In the wake of the Second World War and the revelations about what German guards had been ordered to do in the Nazi concentration camps, Milgram's findings caused a sensation. But to Levine, there's a second lesson to the experiment. The volunteer shows up and meets the imposing young John Williams. He was actually a local high school biology teacher, chosen in Milgram's words because he was technical looking and dry, the type you would later see on television in connection with the space program. Everything Williams said during the experiment had been memorized from a script written by Milgram himself. Mr. Wallace was in fact a man named Jim McDonough. He worked for the railroad. Milgram liked him for the part of victim because he was mild and submissive. His cries of agony were taped and played over a loudspeaker. The experiment was a little amateur theatrical production, and the word amateur here is crucial. The Milgram experiment was not produced for a Broadway stage. Mr. Wallace, by Milgram's own description, was a terrible actor. And everything about the experiment was, to put it mildly, more than a little far-fetched. The electric shock machine didn't actually give shocks. More than one participant saw the loudspeaker in the corner and wondered why Wallace's cries were coming from there, not from behind the door to the room where Wallace was strapped in. And if the purpose of the experiment was to measure learning, why on earth did Williams spend the entire time with the teacher and not behind the door with the learner? Didn't that make it obvious that what he really wanted to do was observe the person inflicting the pain, not the person receiving the pain? As hoaxes go, the Milgram experiment was pretty transparent. And just as with Levine's trivia test, people fell for it. They defaulted to truth. As one subject wrote to Milgram in a follow-up questionnaire, I actually checked the death notices in the New Haven Register for at least two weeks after the experiment to see if I had been involved in a contributing factor in the death of the so-called learner. I was very relieved that his name did not appear. Another wrote, believe me, when no response came from Mr. Wallace with the stronger voltage, I really believed the man was probably dead. These are adults who were apparently convinced that a prestigious institution of higher learning could run a possibly lethal torture experiment in one of its basements. The experiment left such an effect on me, another wrote, that I spent the night in a cold sweat and nightmares because of the fear that I might have killed that man in the chair. But here's the crucial detail. Milgram's subjects weren't hopelessly gullible. They had doubts, lots of doubts. In her fascinating history of Milgram's obedience experiments behind the shock machine, Gina Perry interviews a retired toolmaker named Joe DeMo, who was one of Milgram's original subjects. I thought, this is bizarre, DeMo told Perry. DeMo became convinced that Wallace was faking it. But then Mr. Wallace came out of the locked room at the end of the experiment and put on a little act. He looked, DeMo remembers, haggard and emotional. He came in with a handkerchief in his hand, wiping his face. He came up to me and he offered his hand to shake hands with me and he said, I want to thank you for stopping it. When he came in, I thought, wow, maybe it really was true. DeMo was pretty sure that he was being lied to, but all it took was for one of the liars to extend the pretense a little longer, look a little upset and mop his brow with a handkerchief and DeMo folded his cards. Here are the full statistics from the Milgram experiment. 56.1%, I fully believe the learner was getting painful shocks. 24%, although I had some doubts, I believe the learner was probably getting the shocks. 56.1%, I just wasn't sure whether the learner was getting the shocks or not. 11.4%, although I had some doubts, I thought the learner was probably not getting the shocks. 2.4%, I was certain the learner was not getting the shocks. Over 40% of the volunteers picked up on something odd, something that suggested the experiment was not what it seemed. But those doubts just weren't enough to trigger them out of truth default. That's Levine's point. You believe someone not because you have no doubts about them. Belief is not the absence of doubt. You believe someone because you don't have enough doubts about them. Just think about how many times you have criticized someone else in hindsight for their failure to spot a liar. You should have known. There were all kinds of red flags. You had doubts. Levine would say, that's the wrong way to think about what happened. The right question is, were there enough red flags to push you over the threshold of belief? If there weren't, then by defaulting to truth, you were only being human. More after this. SPEAKER_05: AI has the power to automate. But if it's using untrusted data, can you trust the results? Your business doesn't just need AI, it needs the right AI for your business. Introducing Watson X, a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring AI to your needs. When you Watson X your business, you can train, tune and deploy AI all with your trusted data. Let's create the right AI for your business with Watson X. Learn more at ibm.com slash Watson X. IBM. Let's create. SPEAKER_06: This episode is brought to you by Choiceology, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Choiceology is a show all about the psychology and economics behind our decisions. Each episode shares the latest research in behavioral science and dives into questions like can we learn to make smarter decisions or what is the power of negative thinking? The show is hosted by Katie Milkman. She's an award-winning behavioral scientist, professor at the Wharton School and author of the bestselling book How to Change. Katie talks to authors, athletes, Nobel laureates and more about why we make irrational choices and how we can make better ones. Choiceology is out now. Listen and subscribe at Schwab.com slash podcast or find it wherever you listen. SPEAKER_07: From Pushkin Industries and Ruby Studio at I Heart Media, Incubation is a new podcast about the viruses that shape our lives. It's a show about how viruses attack us and how we fight back. I'm Jacob Goldstein and on Incubation, we'll hear how scientists have pioneered new techniques in the fight against viruses. SPEAKER_02: There was just something about the way the virus was shaped. It always felt like there was no hope for creating a vaccine. Until now. SPEAKER_07: Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. SPEAKER_01: Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. Until now. We'll celebrate the victories, like the incredible story of how smallpox was wiped off the face SPEAKER_07: of the earth. Eradication means you have to get to whatever disease you're targeting everywhere wherever it exists. Listen to Incubation on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. SPEAKER_06: We're back with chapter three of Talking to Strangers. Ana Belin-Montez grew up in the affluent suburbs of Baltimore. Her father was a psychiatrist. She attended the University of Virginia, then received a master's degree in foreign affairs from Johns Hopkins University. She was a passionate supporter of the Marxist Sandinista government in Nicaragua, which the U.S. government was then working to overthrow. And her activism attracted the attention of a recruiter for Cuban intelligence. In 1985, she made a secret visit to Havana. Her new compatriots encouraged her to apply for work in the U.S. intelligence community. That same year, she joined the DIA, and from there, her ascent was swift. Montez arrived at her office first thing in the morning, ate lunch at her desk, and kept to herself. She lived alone in a two-bedroom condo in the Cleveland Park neighborhood of Washington. She never married. In the course of his investigation, Scott Carmichael, the DIA counterintelligence officer, collected every adjective used by Montez's coworkers to describe her. It is an impressive list. Shy, quiet, aloof, cool, independent, self-reliant, standoffish, intelligent, serious, dedicated, focused, hardworking, sharp, quick, manipulative, venomous, unsociable, ambitious, charming, confident, businesslike, no-nonsense, assertive, deliberate, calm, mature, unflappable, capable, and competent. Ana Montez assumed that the reason for her meeting with Carmichael was that he was performing a routine security check. All intelligence officers are periodically vetted so that they can continue to hold a security clearance. She was brusque. SPEAKER_06: Carmichael is a disarmingly boyish man with fair hair and a substantial stomach. He looks, by his own estimation, like the late comedian and actor Chris Farley. She must have thought she could bully him. SPEAKER_11: Montez had been, by that point, a Cuban spy for nearly her entire government career. SPEAKER_06: She had met with her handlers at least 300 times, handing over so many secrets that she ranks as one of the most damaging spies in US history. She had secretly visited Cuba on several occasions. After her arrest, it was discovered that Fidel Castro had personally given her a medal. Through all of that, there hadn't been even a whiff of suspicion. And suddenly, at the start of what she thought was a routine background check, a funny-looking Chris Farley character was pointing the finger at her. She sat there in shock. SPEAKER_11: SPEAKER_06: When Carmichael looked back on that meeting years later, he realized that was the first clue he had missed. Her reaction made no sense. SPEAKER_11: She just sat there and was listening. And, you know, if I'd been astute, I picked up on that. No denial. No confusion. No anger. Anybody who's told their suspect of a murder or something, they're completely innocent. It's like, wait a minute, you just accused me of sound. I want to know what the fuck this is all about. And eventually they'll get in your face. You know, they'll really get in your face. Ana didn't do a freaking thing except sit there like... SPEAKER_06: Carmichael had doubts right from the beginning, but doubts trigger disbelief only when you can't explain them away. And he could easily explain them away. She was the Queen of Cuba, for goodness sake. How could the Queen of Cuba be a spy? Sure. Carmichael told her, I have reason to suspect that you might be involved in a counter-attack. Counterintelligence influence operation. But he later admitted, he said that only because he wanted her to take the meeting seriously. SPEAKER_11: I was anxious to get into it and get to the next step. And like I said, I'm just patting myself on the back. SPEAKER_11: And I worked. I had to shut her up. I'm not going to hear any more of that crap anymore. Now let's get through this. Get this done. That's why I missed. SPEAKER_06: They talked about the Admiral Carroll briefing. She had a good answer. They talked about why she abruptly left the Pentagon that day. She had an answer. She was being flirty, a little playful. He began to relax. He looked down at her legs again. She's got her legs crossed and she's bouncing her, bouncing her toe like that. SPEAKER_11: I don't know if it was conscious, but what I do know is that catches your eye. And we got more comfortable with one another and she became just a little bit more flirty. SPEAKER_06: They talked about the phone call the day the plane was shot down. She said she never got a phone call, or at least she didn't remember getting one. It should have been another red flag. The people who were with her that day in the Situation Room distinctly remembered her getting a phone call. But then again, it had been a long and stressful day. They had all been in the middle of an international crisis. Maybe they just confused her with someone else. There was one other thing, another moment when Carmichael saw something in her reaction that made him wonder. Near the end of the interview, he asked Montes a series of questions about what happened after she left the Pentagon that day. It was a standard investigative procedure. He just wanted as complete a picture as possible of her movements that evening. He asked her what she did after work. She said she drove home. He asked her where she parked. She said, in the lot across the street. He asked her if she saw anyone else as she was parking. Did she say hello to anyone? She said no. I said, okay, well, so what'd you do? SPEAKER_11: You parked your car and you walked across the street. While I'm doing this is where I'm changing the demeanor of her. Keep in mind, I've been talking to her for almost two hours. By that time, Ana and I were almost like buddies. Not that close, but we have a great rapport going. She's actually joking about stuff. We're making funny remarks every once in a while about stuff. It's that casual. And then all of a sudden, this huge change came over. And you could see it. SPEAKER_11: One minute she's just almost flirting stuff. We were having a good time by then. All of a sudden, it changed. It's like a little kid has been caught with his hand in the cookie jar and he's got it behind his back and mom says, what do you have? She was looking at me like, and denying, but looking at me with that look like, what do SPEAKER_06: you know? After her arrest, investigators discovered what had really happened that night. The Cubans had an arrangement with her. If she ever spotted one of her old handlers on the street, it meant that her spymasters urgently needed to talk to her in person. She should keep walking and meet the following morning at a prearranged site. That night, when she got home from the Pentagon, she saw one of her old handlers standing by her apartment building. So when Carmichael asked her pointedly, who did you see? Did you see anyone as you came home? She must have thought that he knew about the arrangement, that he was onto her. She was scared to fucking death. SPEAKER_11: She thought I knew it. And I didn't. I had no idea. I didn't know what I had. I knew I had something. I knew there was something. And long after the interview, I looked back and what did I do? I did the same thing every other human being does. But I rationalized it away. I thought, well, maybe she's been seeing a married guy and she hooked up with her marriage and she didn't want to tell me. Or maybe she's a lesbian or something and she was hooking up with a girlfriend and she doesn't want us to know. She's worried about that. I started thinking about all these other possibilities and I accepted just enough so that I wouldn't keep going crazy. SPEAKER_06: I accepted. Ana Montes wasn't a master spy. She didn't need to be. In a world where our lie detector is set to the off position, a spy is always going to have an easy time of it. And was Scott Carmichael somehow negligent? Not at all. He did what truth default theory would predict any of us would do. He operated from the assumption that Ana Montes was telling the truth and almost without realizing it worked to square everything she said with that assumption. We need a trigger to snap out of the default to truth, but the threshold for triggers is high. Carmichael was nowhere near that point. The simple truth, as Tim Levine argues, is that lie detection does not, cannot work the way we expect it to work. In the movies, the brilliant detective confronts the subject and catches him right then and there in a lie. But in real life, accumulating the amount of evidence necessary to overwhelm our doubts takes time. You ask your husband if he's having an affair and he says no and you believe him. Your default is that he is telling the truth. And whatever little inconsistencies you spot in his story, you explain away. But three months later, you happen to notice an unusual hotel charge on his credit card bill and the combination of that and weeks of unexplained absences and mysterious phone calls pushes you over the top. That's how lies are detected. This is why the Cubans were able to pull the wool over the CIA's eyes for so long. That story is not an indictment of the agency's competence. It just reflects the fact that CIA officers are, like the rest of us, human, equipped with the same set of biases to truth as everyone else. Carmichael went back to Reg Brown and tried to explain. I said, Reg, it just, you know, I realize what it looks like to you. SPEAKER_11: I understand your reasoning that you think that this is a deliberate influence operation. Looks like it. But if it was, I can't point a finger at Ana to say she was part of deliberate efforts. It just doesn't make any sense. SPEAKER_06: In the end, he says he just had to close out the case. Four years after Scott Carmichael's interview with Ana Montes, one of his colleagues at the DIA met an analyst for the National Security Agency at an interagency meeting. The NSA is the third arm of the U.S. intelligence network, along with the CIA and the DIA. They are the code breakers. And the analyst said that her agency had had some success with the codes that the Cubans were using to communicate with their agents. The codes were long rows of numbers, broadcast at regular intervals over shortwave radio, and the NSA had managed to decode a few snippets. They had given the list of tidbits to the FBI two and a half years before, but had heard nothing back. Out of frustration, the NSA analyst decided to share a few details with her DIA counterpart. The Cubans had a highly placed spy in Washington, whom they called Agent S, she said. Agent S had an interest in something called a SAFE system. And Agent S had apparently visited the American base at Guantanamo Bay in the two-week timeframe from July 4th to July 18th, 1996. The man from the DIA was alarmed. SAFE was the name of the DIA's internal computer messaging archive. That strongly suggested that Agent S was at the DIA or at least closely affiliated with the DIA. He came back and told his supervisors. They told Carmichael. He was angry. SPEAKER_11: I said, well, two and a half years, how many DIA employees have gone down there? They've never opened up. They've never told me they opened up a freaking case on a DIA employee. Those motherfuckers. SPEAKER_06: He was the DIA's counterintelligence investigator. He knew exactly what he had to do. A search of the DIA computer system. Any Department of Defense employee who travels to Guantanamo Bay needs to get approval. They need to send two messages through the Pentagon system asking first for permission to travel and then for permission to talk to whomever they wish to interview at the base. Okay, so two messages, Carmichael said. He guessed that the earliest anyone traveling to Guantanamo Bay in July would apply for their clearances was April. So he had his search parameters, travel authority and security clearance requests from DIA employees regarding Guantanamo Bay made between April 1st and July 18th, 1996. He told his coworker, Gator Johnson, to run the same search simultaneously. Two heads would be better than one. They began searching to the safe system. SPEAKER_11: Literally distancing myself from this bad news. SPEAKER_06: Carmichael said, oh shit. Malcolm Gladwell here. Let's re-examine employee benefits with the Hartford Insurance Group benefits insurance. You'll get it right the first time. 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