2024 AI Predictions and Bets with Sunny Madra | E1873

SPEAKER_06: they never told anybody this but Fox Rupert Murdoch put in a late bid to buy web logs in okay, when you already tried when you SPEAKER_06: had the AOL deal on the in the red zone and they were like, Hey, how about plus 3 million? And I was just like, how about no, like, yeah, and I just told them like, if you're going to give an offer that's 30% more than what they're offering, which would have been $9 million. And I'll consider it. If you're just going to without playing the prices right here. Sorry, respectfully Rupert. Yeah, you sold early on that one, Jake, SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_03: how well 18 months from zero to 30 million? Yeah. Dude, I needed SPEAKER_06: to secure the bag. I mean, that was that was the setup of all setups. Once you get your first 10 milli. Yeah, you're dangerous. That's I always tell people get that first 10 million in the bank and man, just to think of how it's been. It's all SPEAKER_05: good, those all good. This Week in Startups is brought to you SPEAKER_02: by Miro helps take ideas from in your head to out there in the world with its ability to democratize collaboration and input. Sign up for free at Miro comm slash startups. NetSuite once your business gets to a certain size, the cracks start to emerge. Things you used to do in a day take a week. You deserve a customized solution. And that's NetSuite. Learn more when you download NetSuite popular KPI checklist, absolutely free at netsuite.com slash twist and Vanta compliance and security shouldn't be a deal breaker for startups to win new business. Vanta makes it easy for companies to get a sock to report fast. Twist listeners can get $1,000 off for a limited time at vanta.com slash twist. SPEAKER_06: All right, everybody, welcome back to this Week in Startups. It is 2024. And it's Monday. No, it's not Monday. It's Tuesday. But we're gonna treat Tuesday like it's a Monday because you love you all love this. This Week in Startups AI every Monday, man, we'll do it on Tuesday this time because Monday was a holiday. Happy New Year. I get together with my good friend, Sandeep Bantra. There he is. Sunny. How you doing? Sunny? Happy New Year. SPEAKER_05: I am doing great. Happy New Year. I have my mid journey generated. Yes. mid journey. Yeah. Yeah. You know, it's interesting to SPEAKER_06: bring up mid journey. We with the big news that dropped this past week while we were on break was of course this New York Times lawsuit. And then I saw on Tick tock and this Tick tock that said mid journey for audio. Yeah, had specifically sampled SPEAKER_06: all of the major artists to make the styles. I don't know if this claim is true or not. Or if we have any backup to this. Did you see a story break about mid journey and musicians? No, I didn't know about mid journey doing the odd men the SPEAKER_05: musicians. I didn't see that it must have been during the break. So yeah, we're gonna keep an eye on that. But there are some mid SPEAKER_06: journey artists list now is mid journey a company or an open source project or both? Because there's another one of these situations where I'm a little kid is not an open source project. It is a company and it SPEAKER_05: is a not venture backed company. And it is gone from zero to 200 million in revenue without any venture dollars. SPEAKER_06: Wow, I was totally unaware of this. SPEAKER_05: Yes. And so okay, they are leveraging open source to build what they're doing, but they are not open sourcing their models. SPEAKER_05: Mm hmm. So you can give a prompt for mid journey on artists, I SPEAKER_06: think so anyway, this is good. I'm just curious when you saw that New York Times or and by the way, today, we're going to do some predictions and bets for what's going to happen in AI in 2024. So we're gonna make bets, we're gonna make bets, explain to them. Yeah, we're what we're gonna do is we're gonna make the mid year SPEAKER_05: because a year is like really long. So let's make the mid year. And then and we're gonna do over under. So you know, person has to take either side of it. And they're going to be SPEAKER_05: things that we've touched on throughout the last couple of months. And they're all going to be pretty relevant, I think, to how 2024 shapes up. So the bets are also encapsulations of our predictions, or my predictions, more accurately, but I think you would align there. SPEAKER_06: Well, yeah, as and this is going to be great. So we're going to say, hey, six months over under, we each pick over under, we do five bets, thousand dollars a bet. So if somebody sweeps, it's five dimes. Yes, if somebody doesn't sweep, it could be two SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: dimes, three times, four times, who knows what's going to happen here. But this is big money on the line here. This is not consequential. So we got to think about this. And that means on August 1, we're going to check in on the bets. July 1. SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: Oh, sorry, I mentioned I first July 1. Yeah, seven. Yeah, perfect. Okay. So let and then at the end of this episode, let's talk about this New York Times lawsuit if we have time, because everybody wants to hear your comments on it, Cindy, because okay, you're the technologist. And I am the SPEAKER_06: content creator. So we have this beautiful peanut butter chocolate here, we could have really interesting granular discussion. SPEAKER_06: What's our first bet? SPEAKER_05: Okay, the first bet. So there will be a Billboard top 100 song created by AI. A Billboard. Yes, 100 song created by AI. Yes. Okay, dude. SPEAKER_05: Now, what I'm going to do is we just don't want to do predictions, I'm going to show you the latest in AI lyric and song creation. And to give us a little warm up here to just SPEAKER_06: level set where we're at and how much further we'd have to go. And we're gonna talk a little bit about what happened earlier SPEAKER_05: in the year as well. So and we don't think there's been one SPEAKER_06: already. Because if you told me there's been one and one of the Grimes mashups had made it, I would have not. I would have believed it. But I don't think one has because we would know that. Yeah. And I don't think it went into the top 100. Got it. SPEAKER_06: Right. So it has to be in the top 100. And it has to be 100% created by AI not. This is you know, Taylor Swift, and then SPEAKER_06: they do a little AI on it. It's an AI artist or an AI representation of with the AI representation of Grimes count. I think it would Yeah, we're gonna allow that to be part SPEAKER_05: that that's okay. That's sufficient if someone takes an AI voice. And so I think we have Nick on with us. Nick, you have just for a quick recap, let's go backwards the AI Drake collaboration. Can you throw that on for us, Nick? Yeah. So SPEAKER_02: this is the earlier in this year, remember, there was a song hard on my sleeve that everybody thought was real. And this was sort of in the early stages of generative AI where people were kind of confused about if Drake actually did this or not. And here's just a video. This isn't the person who made it. But here's just a guy basically recreating how they did it. Very simply. Okay, she know what she need. Oh, I need Oh, she bless SPEAKER_08: uploading those vocals to an AI generator. She know what she SPEAKER_01: need. Oh, I mad a DSR she know what she need auto tune artist SPEAKER_08: making sure that he's in case some white reverb on top. So this is the final result. SPEAKER_06: I kind of like producer bae. I know what's up with producer SPEAKER_06: bae. That guy should be. I mean, he's handsome. He's got the SPEAKER_06: accent and he's got I mean, you see his hand I coordination the speed at which he's editing that stuff. Yeah, man, producer AI SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: bae is got potential man. He's got to try some more tracks. So what you're saying here, by the way, is his name anyway, shout out. So that was six months ago. Right. So that was, you know, so SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_05: that's what you know, it's out there. People have figured out how to do it. Anybody can take it indistinguishable. It's SPEAKER_06: indistinguishable today. So let's just put that out there. So it's indistinguishable. So what we're really betting on SPEAKER_06: here is and I guess I'll go first on this one. Before we SPEAKER_06: don't know before we get more piece of evidence here. At the SPEAKER_05: end of last year. Exactly. Because we've got to have Yeah, it's okay. It's well produced. Yeah. You're very excited. This awesome. So at the end of last year, just a couple of weeks ago, a week ago, suno.ai was released, and they already have their own trending list, like you would see in a Spotify, SPEAKER_06: SPEAKER_04: SPEAKER_05: Spotify, exactly. And you know, people have created different, you know, obviously, there's a Christmas tune up here. Here's a bluegrass inspirational lively. And so I'll just kind of remind this back and hit play. SPEAKER_01: Well, pack up your guitar, leaving this town. Okay. And so SPEAKER_05: what this does is you can create and what I did, and I'm just going to keep going forward here. I actually made a Paw Patrol drill rap song. And so that was my, my prompt was using the characters of Paw Patrol make a all copyright violations here. You got the Paw Patrol IP, you've SPEAKER_06: got whatever artists like 50 Cent in here. I love it. And so SPEAKER_05: I'm going to play this. And let's go back here. SPEAKER_05: Okay, so Oh, yeah, man, I can see kids digging that. Yeah. And SPEAKER_05: so, again, now we've gone from what the we saw on the YouTube video where you had to at least, you know, put the lyrics in yourself, write the lyrics. This is all just prompt based. Yes, music is prompt. And the lyrics are also generated just on the theme full service. Yeah, what we call AI all the way down, all the way down. Got it. Yeah. So that's where we have you can do sort of be really bespoke. Or you can just say, type in prompts, there's a Spotify, one of those songs makes it in the top 100 over under July 1. Right. Okay, so I'm going to take SPEAKER_06: the over. Now, let me explain why. Okay. It's clearly this is SPEAKER_06: easily technical, technically possible. In fact, it's probable. And in fact, we probably could have had a Billboard 100 in the last year or so. So what you have to understand when making this bet, this is my thinking behind the bet. Now, wait, have you picked your choice? Over under? Well, SPEAKER_05: no, what we're gonna do is you got to go first. So next time I get to go first, so I have to see the other. Okay, great. SPEAKER_06: Right. Okay, so you have the under by default, I took over over. The reason it's the over. And the reason I'll win this one SPEAKER_06: hands down is because nothing happens in the music industry without the music industry, making it happen. This is an industry. It's kind of like China, right? Like they're, they'll decide what the renminbi is, they'll decide the stock price, they'll decide inflation, they'll decide. Everything is decided by the people in charge. So the music industry runs like SPEAKER_06: a communist country or, you know, any other, you know, dictatorship. So the music industry, you'd have to ask, would they want this? Would they want it now? I think the music SPEAKER_06: industry is a little scared of doing this right now, and opening up this can of worms with artists. So the only way this could happen is if a true artist like Taylor Swift, who has more leverage over the music platforms than the platforms have over her, right? So how many artists have more power than the music industry itself? It's Taylor Swift, it's Jay Z, SPEAKER_06: it's Beyonce. And you could tell this because remember, Beyonce, Jay Z and Taylor Swift all took the music off of Spotify different points in time to make a point. Yeah, so I don't know who else is in that rarefied air, but I think it's those three. So unless one of those three says I'm putting out SPEAKER_06: this AI Jay Z track, and I don't think Jay Z would ever do it. I don't think Beyonce would ever do it. And I don't think Taylor Swift would ever do it unless they were doing it as some sort of a goof or proof of concept. So I think the muse and I don't think the music industry is ready for this. Because it would create all kinds of union issues, contract issues, and other things that would trigger artists to not want to participate in the music industry, or it just creates a fight and tension that they don't want to smoke. They don't want yet. So that's why I'm picking the over and that's why I'm going to win $1,000. Okay, well, I'm going to take the under because think about SPEAKER_05: remember, Rebecca Black Friday? Yes, that that kind of one hit wonder and we have those all the time. And I think, given these tools, someone will create at least a 181 hit wonder to begin with, that'll get into the top 100 this year. So I'm actually okay with the under on this one. SPEAKER_06: Okay, that's fine. You think that the music industry actually that that 100 list is not picked and sorted over by the music industry? You think you could actually break into it? It can be an independent an independent song, right? It SPEAKER_02: doesn't have to be on a label. Right? Any song in the Billboard SPEAKER_06: 100, the Billboard 100, though, I think is bond paid for it. That's all I'm saying. I don't have evidence of that. Oh, I just think this is like a Tony Soprano kind of situation. How did Rebecca later on? I think they let her on. I think anybody gets on that list. It's because they let them on. I think it's okay. You can look at the history of the music industry. It's a little bit of the inside. I don't know. Yeah, I don't know SPEAKER_04: SPEAKER_05: that side of the world there. But I think it's like one of SPEAKER_06: these. The few remaining industries that is run by our cartel. Okay. And from what I understand from friends of mine SPEAKER_06: who are in the music industry, and you can look up stories of people putting guns to people's heads and sign over these royalties and you're Rob Goldberg on for an episode. SPEAKER_05: Because he knows this stuff really knows this music. I just SPEAKER_06: think the music industry is still like one of the few remaining gangster driven industry. That's why I'm picking SPEAKER_06: the over but I could be wrong. Who knows? Okay, awesome. All SPEAKER_05: right. So I'm going to be under and with coming to me. All SPEAKER_05: right. Okay, awesome. All right. So we're done the first one. Yum. founders always asked me for pitch deck punch ups. How to SPEAKER_06: make my pitch deck a little better? Well, I've got some great news for you. We work with the team at Miro, you know, like hero Miro M I r o that awesome whiteboarding software I've told you all about and what we worked with them to create an amazing pitch deck template for founders, which you can see if you're watching the video right now. Or if you're listening, you can see this pitch deck at Miro comm slash Miro verse and do a search for pitch deck m i r o.com slash Miro verse m i r o v e r s e. I want you to go check this out because our founder university participants they love this template. They use it all the time. And so go ahead and check out the pitch deck template, you're gonna love it. And if your team is hybrid or fully remote, Miro is incredibly useful for you because it's like an old school whiteboarding session. You know, those great ones, but this one is distributed in asynchronous. Let's everybody brainstorm ideas collaborate on projects from anywhere in the world. This software is so popular. And when you think of Miro, I want you to think of zero to one but faster. If you get all those ideas out on your whiteboard with Miro, you're going to have all kinds of creative breakthroughs. And it's hard to do creative breakthroughs when you're just in text. So Miro is much more than just a simple digital whiteboard. Your team can collaborate on everything planning, research design, feedback cycles, and faster inputs equals faster outcomes and velocity is how startups win. So to access our new Miro verse template and thousands of others sign up today for a free Miro account at Miro comm slash startups m i r o.com slash startups, that's mirror comm slash startups to sign up for free. Okay, so the next one is SPEAKER_05: AI J Cal doing a short episode of twist. Okay, define short, SPEAKER_05: like 15 minutes, like a 15 minute episode of twist, like a first segment. Like a segment, let's say a segment, because a SPEAKER_06: segment is 12 minutes, let's say 12 minutes, 12 minutes segment or less 12 minutes segment. Exactly. So 12 minutes SPEAKER_05: segment and and basically, you know, we'll put it out there and no one will know that it was done via AI. Okay. So this is a SPEAKER_06: setup. This is a setup, we're gonna make an AI of me. Yeah, we're gonna have me comment on a news story. Yep. And then we're SPEAKER_06: going to see if the audience, we won't tell the audience, we're doing this, we'll put it in one of the random segments of a news program. And then we'll see if the audience can tell the difference. That's the best. That will be able to pick it up. SPEAKER_06: Yeah, okay. So this, what we're about to watch is a video of a VC speaking. Yes, using agent using hey, Jen, Jen already, SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_00: congrats to the agent team on their rocket ship growth this year. We at conviction are so excited to support Joshua and Wayne in their mission to make AI the new camera. They are democratizing expensive video production. I love seeing all the creator marketing sales and education use cases for Hey, Jen, as well as the ability for everyone to extend their reach by speaking fluently. Okay, well, wow. So that is from the SPEAKER_05: video. It's perfect. The audio is a little bit, you know, you can a little robotic, little robotic. But yeah, again, no SPEAKER_06: mistakes. The problem is no mistakes. Yeah. So I'm just gonna give you a toss you the over under you can pick if but SPEAKER_05: it where you're at. But if you want me to go first, I'll repeat repeat what the bet is repeat what the bet is the bet is we're SPEAKER_05: gonna have a segment of which is in our control with this weekend startups, you have to wear the same clothes where it's like SPEAKER_06: this. Yeah, exactly. Actually, no, let's not do that. Because SPEAKER_05: then people can it'll be like a segment be like, hey, this is a segment we recorded previously or something, we'll find a way not to like trip people off on it. And we'll put it in and it'll be you talking about a subject. So not you and a guest or anything like that. But maybe like copyright, solo news, solo news, AI, copyright, something like that. And we'll put it out and we'll see if people can pick it up. Great. So we'll do is SPEAKER_06: actually here's the better way to we just release it on the Twitter. We do is that we do segments which do like a news up Hey, Jake, I'll talk about this. Yeah. And we'll just see in the replies in the replies that people say is that AI? Yeah, SPEAKER_03: that's it. So the replies if they say that is that AI? Yeah. SPEAKER_06: So wow. Hmm. No, I'm gonna let you we have to do this fairly. I SPEAKER_05: want you to take the under I'm gonna take the under. Okay, I SPEAKER_06: would have taken the under as well. Okay, the under you're taking is that people don't notice. People don't notice they SPEAKER_05: interact. They comment on it, you know? Yeah, they don't notice. Okay. No, no. One per and look. Yeah. Now people are gonna be looking out for it. So yeah, I have. So we'll go with SPEAKER_06: the majority. majority. Yeah. majority. So the majority of SPEAKER_06: replies or let's just say a significant it catches me one but it's like, yeah. Okay. Well, what Nick, how do we make this better a little bit tighter here? How would you make it tighter? How about most people don't notice? SPEAKER_02: Yeah. I will say I do think this is this is going to be over by a lot. And the reason is, because I've done this before. And I've trained Jason's voice on a couple of different platforms. 11 labs, by the way, for audio only is the best one by far. Jason has a very unique cadence of speaking and he has a hitch. And it's very hard for any model that I've tried to train on Jason for it to get it right. So for instance, remember the Jason Peter, Jason Jordan Peterson thing we did? Yeah, that was perfectly nailed Jordan Peterson. But for you, it wasn't exactly perfect. And I think that's because you have a really SPEAKER_00: SPEAKER_06: SPEAKER_02: interesting what you have a unique Yeah, I've cadence. Yes. I change it too. Because I could SPEAKER_06: be excited to be up here. Yeah, exactly. I can lay back. So you know, I have a yeah, because a performer you can see I do different things. Keep the audience's attention. All right, SPEAKER_02: SPEAKER_06: I like it. I like it. I like it. I get the over. We'll see what happens here. Very interesting. Let's go to our third bet. Our third bet. I feel like right now I got two dimes in my pocket. SPEAKER_05: Yeah. Okay. So the third bet is AI Pixar. SPEAKER_07: AI Pixar. Right. We had a bet on this. Yeah. SPEAKER_05: And so, you know, there's there's a couple things we're going to just pull up here just to get kind of state of the art level set. We're gonna level set to level say this is just, SPEAKER_05: you know, kind of state of the art. Someone made a little short here. SPEAKER_06: Oh, I remember this. Yes. Was this mid journey? Or who is this? SPEAKER_05: This is a combination of tools. I think like Pika, there's a bunch of tools that people are using this now because you're you're gonna generate the characters in probably in kind SPEAKER_05: of one of the big image models and use a video models to there's a few different ways people are going to go at it. One would be straight text to video, others will be like stitching together two or three different tools. And then, you know, in relation to this, we saw something else over the holidays, which I'm going to try to pull up here as well. So give me a second. This is amazing. Yeah, I mean, yeah, this, this looks like I SPEAKER_06: would say cable TV movie more than a Pixar, but, you know, SPEAKER_06: like the next level down. Yeah. Okay, but I have to say that the SPEAKER_06: that gap, I just want to point out the gap between what's a movie? And what's a TV show? In terms of budget of special effects, that gap is closing. And so you see this in the Star Wars films, and the Star Wars TV shows like and or, or like Mandalorian, there are moments that are indistinguishable between those two or Ashoka, where like, especially when they're doing space battles and stuff like that, you're kind of like, that could be a movie. That could have been, you know, Rogue One Star Wars Empire, you know, whatever. Yeah, yeah. And SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: then I'll tell you one, there's a there's this thing called the monster series with Titans in it. So like Godzilla King Kong, Godzilla vs. King Kong Kong Skull Island. And so my daughters and I have been watching that. And then there's a TV show out on Apple TV called monarch, which is about the secret organization that since the time of Godzilla appearing when the nuclear bombs went off in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, that's kind of the folklore of it all. Till now, there's been this monarch monarch agency, this like stealth agency that tries to protect humans and monitor these Titans, these giant monsters like monster, etc. Anyway, my point here is SPEAKER_06: the TV show is so well produced, and the Apple TV has got unlimited cash, obviously. So that factors into it. But having just watched the movies at the same time as watching the TV show, you cannot tell the difference difference. Yeah, SPEAKER_03: yeah, there's no difference. And so that's kind of a watermark SPEAKER_06: moment. Movies like the thing you're talking about? Is it SPEAKER_04: like Pacific Pacific Rim is Yeah, got monsters and stuff. SPEAKER_06: And they kind of copied and did something derivative from the Godzilla series. And I really like Godzilla. And there's a Godzilla movie out. That's a Japanese language Godzilla. Oh, yeah, it's been in the Apple trending. I've seen it right. It SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_06: is awesome. I went to see the movie theaters with subtitles. I took my 14 year old to it and she loved it. It is this it really is about the Japanese culture. Yeah. And how they, you SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: know, lost the ability to go to war and not have an army. And wow, I don't want to spoil it for anybody. But it is a very SPEAKER_06: soulful, deep, personal story. Yeah, with Godzilla in it. Yeah, SPEAKER_06: it's awesome. Like, they're really kind of reimagining what Godzilla means in terms of like nuclear war, war in general, you know, and all this stuff. It's really interesting. Anyway, I should make me maybe Godzilla year zero or something. Nick, we can look it up. Here's an example, like just to build on SPEAKER_05: Jake, he'll do last example, then we'll do the prediction on this one. Here's an example where the voices are definitely done with minus one, by the way, Godzilla minus one, well worth SPEAKER_06: your time. Here's one where the voices are definitely done with SPEAKER_05: AI because they are the voices of characters. But the video is questionable, whether it's CGI or not, which is, you know, we're that means we're trending in the right direction. So this is like a short wrap video that this user username blurb on YouTube created. And it's like SpongeBob drill wrap. So we're just gonna get into it right now. SPEAKER_06: Larry's SPEAKER_06: this might win two awards because that seems like it could chart on Billboard. It's kind of a quick aside. So I don't know like the did you see SPEAKER_05: this this on Jan first the Disney trademark on Mickey Mouse expired. Yeah, now people have taken Mickey Mouse and created first person shooters and all kinds of stuff. Wonderful. Steamboat Willie steamboat Willie version of him. Yeah, I SPEAKER_05: think it's what they call it the original original one. Right. And so, but, um, yeah, you know, when you watch that video and the lyrics and especially, you know, played it for Nick, who is definitely in the SpongeBob generation. It's, it's pretty, pretty wild because the lyrics, the voices, and then I don't know if the animations are AI or not, but definitely someone kept someone will be able to pull that out. What's our bet SPEAKER_06: here? What's our over under bad for that is July 1, we're just SPEAKER_05: going to build up on the other one and we'll solidify it in here. By July 1, a Pixar short, that is also made it into the mainstream. And people are talking about it. That's why the Billboard hundred thing is there. People are talking about it. People are excited by it. It's just coming up on short that is indistinguishable from an actual Pixar short. Correct. SPEAKER_06: SPEAKER_05: And it's circulating in non technorati site circles. It's you know, people are talking about it on the national news. So it's so good that the national Okay, that's good. So SPEAKER_06: it's so good. It gets national recognition. Yes. Okay. So it's SPEAKER_06: not enough that it comes out. It has to get national recognition. I see a P over. I take the over. Okay. I think it's not going to get national recognition. I think it could, like these SPEAKER_06: things spread in on x slash Twitter. Yeah, I don't think it's gonna spread anywhere else. Yeah, I'm okay with the under on SPEAKER_05: this one, too. I think we're gonna seems like the best bet. SPEAKER_06: This is like the closest one for me. I think there's so many SPEAKER_05: creatives out there. They have access to so much tooling and computing power that they are really going to push to create something for society and it's gonna be fun. So I'm good. Here's here's something for everybody. I'm going to give you SPEAKER_06: an idea. Okay, I don't think I think what we're doing here is we're kind of challenging the AI community. So this is a challenge the AI community. Take one of the Pixar's films and make a short about a character from a Pixar film that you think should have gotten more play. I'm going to give you an idea. There's the character Anton Ego in my favorite Pixar film, we're at a Tato and there is a scene at the end when it's his childhood, and how his mom made him ratatouille and how that dish, you know, changed his life. Anyway, they show a quick scene of him. It's just for a brief second, they show him going back to his childhood in the final scene of the film when he says, Hey, listen, the life of a critic is not very important, unless we're supporting new things. So here we are, you could make a film about Anton Ego as a child, making ratatouille itself or learning how to make ratatouille from his mom or coming home from a rough day at school. And then SPEAKER_05: you're doing a little you're doing a little spin off SPEAKER_06: character. So and then I think in Toy Story, you could do a spin off character because I don't think they ever had woody SPEAKER_06: or Buzz Lightyear have a child right there was never they never pursued that right like a woody had a son or a daughter were ageless right they were ages. So here's another idea for you SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: because they did have woody get a girlfriend right yeah at one SPEAKER_06: point what about if woody Jr. and woody has to like raise a kid and just have woody being a dad yeah so there's another SPEAKER_06: great one what he's a dad and he's got like a little son or daughter who is you know, dealing with whatever issues SPEAKER_06: Trust me I have ideas I should have been a movie I always want to share a movie studio I feel like it's not too late for me I SPEAKER_05: think in in this you know next era that we're in J co you've always been a content producer writing books and obviously SPEAKER_05: Silicon Alley and you know twist and all yeah but I think now you can expand to that I think it's gonna show your fingertips I love SPEAKER_06: it I love it yeah so those are two good ideas for you somebody SPEAKER_06: make them okay yeah okay so to be clear I have the over you SPEAKER_06: have the under under I don't feel very good about this bet so I feel like I got two out of three right now okay and I just inspired these lunatics in the audience to go do one of these ideas okay yeah I know and actually if you do either of SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_06: those ideas I'll take you to lunch in the Bay Area so if anybody actually does those ideas and it's reasonably good I'll take you to lunch okay let's keep going okay your business gets to a certain size and we know the cracks start to emerge things that you used to do in a day are now taking a week or a month you have too many manual processes you know that and you don't have one single source of truth if this is you you should know these three numbers 37,025 one 37,000 that's the number of businesses which have upgraded to net suite by Oracle you know net suite it's the number one cloud financial system streamlining accounting financial management inventory HR and more 25 net suite turns 25 this year that's 25 years of helping businesses do more with less close their books and days not weeks and drive down costs one because your business is one of a kind so you get a customized solution for all of your KPIs in one efficient system with one source of truth manage risk get reliable forecasts and improve margins everything you need to grow all in one place so here's your call to action right now download nets weets popular KPI checklist designed to give you consistently excellent performance absolutely free at net suite comm slash twist that's net suite comm slash twist to get your own KPI checklist net suite comm slash twist so over the holidays a new SPEAKER_05: model was released I'm going to pull it up here which was called tiny llama and it's a 1.1 billion parameter model run super fast and so it's a 1.1 billion parameter model it's tiny and it was trained just in 90 days using just 16 a 100 chips so a couple of things here it's very small to run it was trained with you know basically compute that's accessible by any person in the world and you can see that on a local device this thing runs at like a blazing speed alright so here I'm going to just show the speed of one of these tiny models running and you'll just see here someone's taken that tiny llama and you can see how quickly it's producing results right and so describe what you see on the screen there so what we're SPEAKER_06: seeing is someone on their m3 max which is just an m3 Mac which SPEAKER_05: is the latest chip you can get it in a laptop or an iMac only SPEAKER_06: available in the pros right now and be exactly back in the air only have m2 but the m3 is so powerful yeah that you could train was not training this is just running inference now so SPEAKER_05: so running it for explain the difference between since we're SPEAKER_06: here you know we like to educate everybody one more time training versus inference so training is what you do to create SPEAKER_05: a model so you do all of the information available to you including copyright on copyright information sure you feed it into your training infrastructure to build a model and and it takes a sort of a rule of thumb you can use is the SPEAKER_05: number of parameters a model has so in this case this tiny llama I just showed earlier is 1 billion parameters it probably took 1 trillion tokens to train it and when you get those bigger models like we see with llama 70 b then you have to have 100 times that amount right sorry 1000 times that amount so seven that would be 70 trillion right and then when you get into define what a token is a token a word is a token a paragraph a SPEAKER_06: sentence an image it's not quite a word but let's just say a word SPEAKER_05: for for all intents and purposes it's a word right and so that's what you use to train and so here we're running inference on SPEAKER_06: the M three yeah you wouldn't be able to train this model on an M three right now you need those it's a page it took 16 a 100 SPEAKER_05: switch you can go get an Amazon they're not like the H 100 this is the kind of previous generation of Nvidia chip and what I'm showing here is running on your laptop this is like writing a story about the universe I'll just use it so instead of using chat GPT for where you're sending your prompt SPEAKER_06: up to a bunch of servers that are very powerful and it's sending the results down to you edge computing we've called that client server computing and server yeah this is your SPEAKER_06: computer is the server and the client in one you're running it locally yeah so if you turn off internet yes and you're you have no starlink which by the way shout out starlink I was getting 200 megabit down I screwed up my ski house yeah I have unobstructed oh my lord wow yeah it just took a jump I got over SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: 200 megabit down watching more and more satellites right you SPEAKER_05: know and so I don't know what to say I'm kind of starting to SPEAKER_06: think the FCC and the United States government is corrupt I SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_06: mean the fact that they canceled that contract yeah I don't know if you heard that episode of all in where he talked about it and I also had on twist last week on Brandon car on shout out to my guys two times he's been on the pod I now actually think that there are people at work in our government I don't get all deep state here but I think there's a contingent of people SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_06: in our government who are doing corrupt things I hate to break the news to people but people might have ulterior motives of our government yeah wild what yeah it definitely is I mean SPEAKER_05: that one no one you imagine it well here's the thing if you SPEAKER_06: cancel those people's free starlink because they're getting it at a discount or free they're going to order starlink in the interim anyway yeah because it's the best solution so this would be like saying to somebody like I don't know what's the best SPEAKER_06: hands down best thing you look at iPhone right so let's say you were going to subsidize people to get an iPhone you know two years before the iPhone was available whatever because you had the digital divide you want to get an iPhone and then you're like you know we're canceling this screw Steve Jobs he's too successful we don't like him as politics whatever and then all those people had a choice of what phone to buy in that you know when that to your country came up 80% of them would buy SPEAKER_06: the iPhone anyway yes it's the best product of course so literally we're sitting here and it's like this pizza is incredible oh no I don't think this pizza is great it's like no SPEAKER_06: no this is like the best pizza you know dayport and I gave it a 9.6 it's the highest rated pizza ever in pizza reviews and they're like yeah no and then everybody goes to that pizzeria anyway and buys it it's a total force I know I'm talking about my guy but I'm Jason I would mention that the key point here SPEAKER_02: is that the free market is going to figure out what the best price anyway but the reason that there's contention here is because the alternative is installing fiber lines which is going to take 10 more years and cost five times the price yeah yes no reason and no money is going to be burned for no reason that's exactly correct producer Nick coming in in his SPEAKER_00: SPEAKER_06: final 60 days here producing for this weekend starts before he goes full time at all and and providing massive value in year three what is this year four for you working for me I SPEAKER_03: don't know I don't even know I don't want to trigger him wow crazy for a while he's been here for a while but now he's going SPEAKER_06: to be working for the chairman dictator producer Nick March first Sonny do you have any uh do you have any experience with SPEAKER_02: that realm I think it's gonna I think you're gonna have a SPEAKER_05: really good you're gonna have a fun time I know you know he's SPEAKER_06: very generous he he's uh very kind um you know despite his SPEAKER_06: uh gruff sharp elbows I think there's a lot of people a lot of SPEAKER_05: money it's good let's keep keep at it it's good I will say don't get on the wrong side I know a couple of people got on SPEAKER_06: the wrong side of Juma it wasn't pretty it went to the SPEAKER_06: mat with a couple of people and just leave it at that top of it SPEAKER_05: you always are with information right you know he's he's always very fair when you bring information to the table so yeah yeah he was your original investor right so deep in your SPEAKER_06: he's been an investor in all my companies right so there you SPEAKER_05: go all right chairman dictator let's do it okay um yeah just on SPEAKER_05: starlink I'll say I'll say the same thing I just I want to add one thing there which is it's the I I just think the beauty now is uh for those folks that are struggling for connectivity I saw that starlink's available at Costco did you see that yeah no I didn't but that's like yeah Nick I don't even pull it SPEAKER_05: up all right you know it was no when you when you wind up at SPEAKER_06: Costco yeah it's game over yeah that's when you know you're a mass market product and everybody's aware of it like um you can get like I knew that wagyu and kobe beef was gonna be a thing when it's at Costco yeah look at this yeah there it is SPEAKER_05: Costco what are you I have I have a better one I have a better one hold on I have one where it's someone took a picture inside of Costco I'm gonna show you that look at SPEAKER_06: this yeah yeah right there just grab one grab one you know what grab also get the also get the locks there's a really good deal on um nova social locks yeah but I mean my wife so my my wife SPEAKER_06: goes to the FCC thing yeah look I'm not supporting it because I SPEAKER_05: think it's terrible is that go to your Costco go buy one set it up that's it and you don't need the government I mean that was SPEAKER_06: my feeling on it I listen I'm happy for my my friend and their company to save the government money yes and to get a great contract that's awesome yeah I think that actually makes sense to me if the other option because I do believe the SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: digital divide is real yeah and I do believe that taxing people SPEAKER_06: who are in cities a modest amount in order to make sure that we have broadband to people who are not in cities yeah that's to me seems like a fair use of government right SPEAKER_06: you don't want people on farms in rural america it wasn't fair SPEAKER_05: when you had to pay you know several thousand dollars to get you know dsl or whatever it is or phone line jobs now like again my point is if you just go to Costco like no one should get that contract if they're if it's gone from spacex it should be gone yeah yeah no it should and then nobody gets it and the SPEAKER_05: government be like hey you know what you want internet like a cell phone go get it from you know at&t yeah but I mean if SPEAKER_06: you're a libertarian you're like hey every you chose to live on a farm therefore you don't get broadband I think that is SPEAKER_06: like a very a nuanced position it's like a very yeah brute force like libertarian government get out of our lives SPEAKER_06: if we live in a society yeah and we want society to be fair SPEAKER_06: and lift everybody if one percent of americans let's just say three percent of americans let's you know out of a hundred and million plus households or some major million households there's three million people who can't get access to broadband would it not be okay for the 97 to pay an extra ten dollars a month or five dollars a month or three dollars a month whatever it is in order to subsidize those three million just to get some fiber out there and make sure they don't get left behind because it is such a critical essential piece of infrastructure I think that's worth it I also think it's worth it for electricity and clean water and public education right so that seems like a fair thing to do in society while we wait for technology to make those things possible and if technology is not possible yet that's a great use of government dollars or our tax dollars we can decide as a society that's a good use of our tax dollars I don't think anybody's arguing that kids on a farm or living in rural America don't deserve to have the same broadband as kids in you know and families who are in cities who have easier access so anyway shout out to the team at starlink and also SPEAKER_06: the team at amazon and hughs who are also putting up low earth orbit satellites shout out to all three of them and the team at costco and the team at costco shout out to costco I'll SPEAKER_06: never go to a costco that's too much craziness especially with my level of micro celebrity now yeah I don't know if you know SPEAKER_06: what it's like for me to be in a public space anyway you do you hung with me I've been with you yeah it's very it's very SPEAKER_06: disturbing you could have two or three people ask for a selfie every day it could be as much as three selfies a day I have to take you realize how crushing that is on my email you have to take three people go to costco but what happened it happened SPEAKER_04: SPEAKER_06: you and I were out and somebody came over and they were the biggest fans and I was like happy to take a selfie they're SPEAKER_06: like maybe later it's like excellent. Alright listen selling software is hard it's hard right now right 2022 2023 it's been a grind 2024 it's going to be hard too everybody's making very thoughtful decisions and the last thing you need is to slow your sales team down because you don't have your sock to dialed in so if you're a sass or services company that stores customer data in the cloud you need to check out vanta vanta will get your startup stock to comply easier and faster vanta makes it really easy to get and renew your sock to on average vanta customers are sought to compliance just two to four weeks compare that to three to five months without vanta vanta can save you hundreds of hours of work and up to 85% on compliance costs and vanta does more than just stock to they also automate up to 90% compliance for gdpr hipaa and more you can't afford to lose out on major customers because the silly stuff like lacking compliance just work with vanta get your compliance automated and tight tight is right close those big deals the lighthouse deals that send all the other customers to you here's the call to actions very simple fan is going to give you a thousand dollars off at vanta.com twist that's vanta.com twist to collect a thousand dollars off your sock too what SPEAKER_06: is the bet the bet is that is do we see small models in SPEAKER_05: apple's phones or android before you know those are two SPEAKER_06: those are two very different bets i know well okay we can SPEAKER_05: find that's where it's going i was like any mobile devices local models on local devices pre installed or installable SPEAKER_05: let's say pre installed okay so i think we need to break this SPEAKER_06: into two yeah okay i will propose all right there is two SPEAKER_06: flagships you have the pixel from google google fi google pixel which they're still producing and they they put SPEAKER_06: their latest and greatest on that and then there's the iphone so i think we're breaking into two bits yeah and am i supposed to go first yeah okay so i'm taking the over for SPEAKER_06: the iphone okay and then should you make the bet on android to SPEAKER_06: make it fair yeah or should i make both under on android yeah SPEAKER_06: see it now i'm so i think this is going to be a push this is a classic push yeah well because you know you know apple takes SPEAKER_06: time to do stuff yeah and they're thoughtful and you know google just you know is getting better and throwing stuff out there so great i can give you just a little that's a great bet i think this is the most interesting one yeah on you SPEAKER_05: know again just before the holidays apple released uh like a version of a model called ferret and put it into you know a face and every yeah so whoa whoa whoa whoa breaking news SPEAKER_06: apple has a language model this is a first it's it's not their SPEAKER_05: own so what they've done what they've done is they've been working with existing models and modifying the fact that they're putting this out there is wait wait on a github account putting it out there there's a github account from SPEAKER_06: apple employees yes of something called ferret ferret SPEAKER_03: yes refer and ground anything anywhere at any granularity SPEAKER_06: yes okay so this is in order to do what this is for images this SPEAKER_05: it seems like they've done this for images exactly right and so they've done this on and the reason they've probably been forced to open source it and i don't know like how much time you spend on open source there's certain models and sorry certain open source licenses that if you use them to build with you have to open source what you're doing so what i'm taking this as apple is using this and they're kind of being forced to open source it because the license it was just a good thing for open source and so this tells us they must be closed if they're already pushing it in the open source SPEAKER_06: so so they are using an open source model the open source license requires you to give to get so if you want to build on an open source model in some cases the licenses mean you have to give back any changes you make correct there is fair so then apple is putting this out there and this is to identify images and to make changes on images using ai no SPEAKER_05: no that's just this particular model is like like you can see the example is what is the relationship between object and object in this case there's like a you know a dog and a ferret right and so it's basically what it's going to allow you to do is like kind of maybe ask questions about stuff on your phone so this is for google this is for apple photos when SPEAKER_06: you apple photo sucks when you're like bulldog and it's like it gives you like a piece of pizza yeah so this is they're SPEAKER_06: obviously working on ai for google photos yes got it and well here's having everyone upload all their photos and do SPEAKER_05: it in the cloud they're labeled to do it on your device with all the compute that we have there okay that makes a lot of sense SPEAKER_06: if you got an m3 if you eventually have oh no they're using the a chips on there i think they're up to a14 or 15 or something these are just kind of like uh tuned down SPEAKER_05: versions of them chips yeah nowadays yeah so i mean what an SPEAKER_06: incredible thing steve jobs did in his final uh years to get off of intel and make his own silicon what a tremendous advantage what a visionary thing to do what a great thing to do with your money yeah you know when you think about being SPEAKER_06: an entrepreneur when you build up a chip stack you know what SPEAKER_06: can you do with the chip stack uh you can't buy things anymore obviously adobe couldn't buy figma and they're trying to block every acquisition so you know what can you do with the money amazon built out data centers and warehouses uh apple decided to build their own silicon yep uh elon over at SPEAKER_06: tesla built uh supercomputers and his own silicon and you know with dojo so you know in deploying capital if you're not allowed to buy things then build things and build things that are unbelievably expensive and insane long passes i love this SPEAKER_06: idea like if you're the new york times right and you're starting to build up the subscription business yep what could you do with the money well you can buy little things like wordle and then keep adding them to your subscription or buy the athletic a small purchase or buy wire cutter they should be SPEAKER_06: doing you know and i don't know the new york times never offered to buy in gadget uh etc but let's just say they were dancing around and aol just had the cojones to come in quicker than the new york times but fox i never told anybody this but fox rupa murdoch uh put in a late bid to buy web logs okay when SPEAKER_06: you already tried when you had the aol deal on the in the red zone and they were like hey how about plus three million and i was just like how about no like and i just told them like if you're going to give an offer that's 30 percent more than what they're offering which would have been nine million dollars and i'll consider it but if you're just gonna we're not playing the prices right here sorry respectfully rupert yeah SPEAKER_03: you sold early on that one jcal wow 18 months from zero to 30 SPEAKER_06: million yeah dude i needed to secure the bag i mean that was that was the setup of all setups once you get your first 10 million you're dangerous that's i always tell people get that first 10 million in the bank and man you got to have your money just to think about how it's been it's all good SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_05: those all good well no i mean yeah but i mean the in gadget SPEAKER_06: right now if i owned in gadget it'd probably be doing 50 million in revenue whatever it is 15 20 years later almost like yeah it's not actually that big of a business it was a SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: great business don't get me wrong yeah but you know i i'm building something with inside.com that i showed you briefly that i think is going to be the best editorial product ever make awesome and that's my 2020 that's one of my 2024 SPEAKER_06: resolutions and you're bringing ai into it so it's kind of it's SPEAKER_05: an AI based community news kind of product that i'm grinding on SPEAKER_06: and i just got a very talented person to work with me on it so i need a collaborator i need like a cindy you know a technical collaborator because i'm not in the weeds but i think i might make something that's very interesting you know and i've always had this obsession with the inside.com domain name and then i finally have the concept yeah well with the AI SPEAKER_05: it fits really well because you want to be i think so yeah SPEAKER_06: based on the stuff i've shown you i think we might have something we might have a winner here let's finalize this bet so we said i got the over yeah apple you got the under under google google pixel yes and it's the that it has that they bundle the model on the phone device yes on device if they announce it does that count if they announce they're bundling i think it should i think announced yeah yeah announced SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_06: or executed either one of those so if they announce they're gonna have this model has this weird six nine month window SPEAKER_05: sometimes announcements and releases so wait aren't the SPEAKER_06: vision supposed to be on sale yet then they say in the new year they were gonna have the the goggles on sale i'm buying those immediately one thing i'm just not tracking very well nobody's SPEAKER_05: tracking and it's like isn't it amazing yeah it's really great SPEAKER_06: AI is got so many practical consumer applications yeah that SPEAKER_06: AR VR yeah and crypto seem unimportant by comparison i SPEAKER_05: will say and i i didn't pull it up here and i i want to do it maybe next week but the new ray bands from meta have been coupled with the language model that they have and so you can SPEAKER_05: wear them you can turn on record mode and you can say like hey what am i looking at and it will explain it to you so that's SPEAKER_05: what i've always felt would be the best use of those hands SPEAKER_06: down is to what's in the world right so i felt like if i'm looking out at a building you told me hey in that you know like when you're in japan yeah they'll have very tall buildings and the buildings will when you're when you're looking at SPEAKER_06: the building there might be a 10 story building and there's three restaurants on each floor yeah and there's all little SPEAKER_06: signs and it's very hard to navigate and you have to go to the directory but if i just looked at it and it said and i said just show me the four and a half five star yelp review google reviews yeah and i just looked around on the block and it just lit them up man that would be powerful or what about SPEAKER_05: you were wearing them at ces this year and you're like you know ah yeah show me the give me information on this SPEAKER_06: information about this or just you know summarize what i just SPEAKER_05: looked at here and book markets imagine real world bookmarks SPEAKER_05: they're just looking at something and i'm like hey uh SPEAKER_06: bookmark that and send it to sundeep i look at a dish in a restaurant i'm always i use food as the use case because we eat food all the time but imagine i'm looking at that french roast at the central bakery in japan yeah and i just looked at and i said send this to sunny and it just sends you a video in the link man the bookmarking shared bookmarks on SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_00: SPEAKER_06: ar are going to be sick yeah that's going to be the number one use case where you're like oh what was the name that SPEAKER_05: plays and it pulls it back out and you know french toast let's SPEAKER_06: go yeah all right here we go okay so last one last bet the SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_06: last this is going to wind up being six bats because we have the double bet yeah so you know it was supposed to be five we SPEAKER_05: turn that into double but whatever we'll throw another throw another dime out there now wait are we on the last one SPEAKER_06: we 500 each or a thousand each no just a thousand it's like you SPEAKER_05: know makes it easier so it's six thousand at stake okay six SPEAKER_05: thousand at stake now where i like it yeah so the last one is SPEAKER_05: um and um we have some uh thing i can pull up but i want to just lay it out first last year was a year of like large language models text and what we saw at the end of the year is multimodal and you've started doing this with talking um you know we had a poker game recently and the settlement i don't know i didn't share this but the settlement was done by chat gpt i don't know yeah i took the screenshot of the notes and did the settlement with chat gpt sweet so um and you SPEAKER_05: know like typically we have someone do that and all that so like the the bet here is over under by july 1st do SPEAKER_05: multimodal models become multimodal does an open source multimodal model become the most popular model on the planet SPEAKER_06: does it open source multimodal yes become the most popular on SPEAKER_06: planet and so this would be you're basically saying would it be better than chat gpt's app yes that's basically what you're saying because that's the number one and we assume it's not going to get displaced so will chat gpt fours multimodal app SPEAKER_06: be displaced yes by an open source model by july 1st do you SPEAKER_06: have anything to set this up or not are you going to show something to say yes i i i am i'm going to show this uh so SPEAKER_05: let's show it now we we're not saying by number of downloads SPEAKER_06: or paid subscribers it's just a better product qualitatively SPEAKER_05: you know like how everyone talked about chat gpt and gpt for through all of 2023 everyone starts to talk about um everyone begin to talk about um okay okay so i think the way to SPEAKER_06: SPEAKER_06: say this is will an open source model displace multimodal force very specifically okay so multi-mode i uh is it my bet i SPEAKER_06: think you did the android one last so it's my bet over yes your bet go for it my bet um i'm gonna share my screen here SPEAKER_06: i'm taking the over here because i just think open source takes a long time to bake and get stuff out okay but maybe so so SPEAKER_05: this is uh um a project called lava uh and vision assistant SPEAKER_05: and it's a combination microsoft research columbia and uh remember this uh lava wisconsin l a v a large language SPEAKER_06: and vision assistant visual instruction tuning yes got it wow this is impressive okay wait i may have to change my bet okay hold on based on this you didn't yeah you got you had something here okay hold on so here's a picture of a guy SPEAKER_06: ironing a shirt on the back of a taxi yeah and okay the SPEAKER_05: question that i you know this isn't a demo it says what is unusual about this and it says the unusual aspect of this image is that a man is ironing clothes while standing on the back of a moving car this is not a typical scene as ironing clothes yada yada yada right it's done in a more indoor environment not and so the person can't balance and be really hard to do it how does the model know that this is what's the old jcal like you took the orders the model no i mean because you know i SPEAKER_06: SPEAKER_06: understand how it regurgitates like what's the best coffee machine back to the new york times versus opening i i know i get that i get when it makes an image and it's like hey make me SPEAKER_06: an image of a happy new year image yeah and it just goes finds other happy new year images and and you know builds off of it but what really trips me out about language models yeah is when they can interpret an image that always freaks me out this is the part where i start to think it's thinking SPEAKER_05: well here's here's how unless it knows this image does it know SPEAKER_06: this image and somebody described it on the internet somewhere no it's actually figuring this out from the context that's what freaks me out about the way to think about SPEAKER_05: this is and this is there's a lot of there's a lot of energy around this particular topic people believe that llms are SPEAKER_05: actually um not should not be used as knowledge retrieval systems which is what they people use them for like hey you know tell me with you know espresso machines exactly but more their reasoning engines and because of their understanding of the language and so in order what is reasoning right reasoning is like an understanding of language and they have an incredible understanding of language and so if you think about what happens when this when this image is presented to a model it basically the first thing that happens the model has to describe what the image is and it'll say well it's a car and there's a person ironing on the back of it just a description and then the reasoning SPEAKER_05: capabilities of the model say hey that's just not practical like it's you know because of what it's saying here because it's able to reason that from its understanding of every all the training material that's ever seen so it's see there's SPEAKER_06: some query going on that says query per se it's yeah it knows SPEAKER_05: that it knows scenarios about driving and those scenarios about ironing and then it's able to kind of confer from that you look and it tells it say the car is moving you want to be balanced if you're doing this so it's it's you know so it knows that this task requires balance and it's done indoors SPEAKER_06: and that this is outdoors so it's it's it's in training SPEAKER_05: material when it learns about ironing right and it's like hey you want to have a stable surface you want to make sure it's not tilted you know like you want to make sure the stable the surface is very flat like don't you wouldn't do it SPEAKER_06: and it also knows that you it's dangerous to be in the middle of the road yeah yes yeah so this is I mean I really think the SPEAKER_06: reasoning part of AI is the part yeah that I find so impressive I do think it's a bit of a parlor trick when it rewrites stuff because I you know it's very easy to understand that part the reasoning part is where I always get impressed I have to be honest yeah I know it's so SPEAKER_05: impressive if you all in summit I spend time with uh Steven Wolfram um and he's really big on the reasoning aspect of it as well so here we go you're showing an image what are the SPEAKER_06: things I should be cautious about when I visit here and it's showing a lake with a dock that walks out you know it's SPEAKER_06: like a pier yeah when visiting the pier over the lake there are SPEAKER_06: a few things you should be cautious about first ensure that you have appropriate footwear with good traction as the pier may be wet or slippery especially if it has been raining or if there is algae on the surface well it's a deep pole second be mindful of the weather conditions the image shows a cloudy day oh here we go which could lead to sudden changes in weather such as rain or strong winds it's essentially be prepared for these conditions and to have a plan in case of an emergency lastly be aware of any potential hazards in the world such as submerged rocks or debris and avoid swimming or wading the lakes without proper safety measures so it knows it's a lake it's knows it's a dock it knows that there are since you said what should I be cautious about it does a reverse and says we're what's dangerous about docks and lakes and yes and then it goes into SPEAKER_06: to this one I get the reasoning a little bit better when you do something completely like the one that always get me is when you put a meme in there and you say explain the me yeah yeah they do most of the time or sometimes it gets it nails it so I find that also very fascinating this has been an incredible year here we didn't vote on this one yet it's my vote I'm taking the over I'm taking the over I'm taking the SPEAKER_05: answer like we saw that I'm sticking with you okay all SPEAKER_06: SPEAKER_06: right there we go all right everybody on the page it'll be SPEAKER_06: up this week at startups.com slash bats is going to redirect to a best page if you remember any of the long bets we've been making over the last decade here on the show or if you want to go search using our new AI website. The new AI website powered by podcast AI is this week and startups.com all the AI episodes are available at this week and startups.com slash AI the bets will be available at this week and startups.com slash bats. Start up basics is at this week and startups.com slash basics. That's kind of how we do things here is we just put a slash and a simple keyword Sunday can be found on x.com slash Sunday deep yes two e's and a P Sunday. We call him SPEAKER_06: Sonny. He's awesome. I don't think you have any room for more customers or clients. No definitive intelligence. You're all always do. We all know you have room for one more. Okay, so SPEAKER_06: there's one more client engagement for 2024 available definitive.io. Yes, that's the URL or Sunday at definitive.io that was your email. And listen, we're out of time. But on the New York Times thing, it's going to be an incredible lawsuit. Most of these things get settled. They tried to SPEAKER_07: SPEAKER_06: settle this one already. But I think there is a landmark. It's SPEAKER_05: sort of what happened in the internet at the beginning, you know, with similar. Yeah, my advice to New York Times is to SPEAKER_06: not back down on this one and go to the mat on it. That's my best advice to them because this is the Google crucible moment. If all the publishers had gotten together and said to Google, if you want to index us, and you want that snippet there, because when you look at 10 snippets, you might get 50% of the value of clicking. And that's what a lot of us do. You do some search on Google, you get the one box, you get the snippets. And then they went and they boiled the frog, basically. But if the top 500 publishers that said, Okay, well, no index, Google would have been worthless. Google would have been worthless. Let's be honest, it would have never found all the interesting information. I think New York Times should then team up with Reddit, Quora, Stack Overflow, and a bunch of other people. And they should also open AI, and all put these examples out there. And they should just target open AI, until open AI comes up with a licensing model that makes sense. And I think the licensing model should be reasonable, so that it encourages people to do it, but it should be people's right to opt out of it, and they should be able to set their own price. So I believe what should happen is if you want to license the New York Times, you should pay a fee of $1 per year per user of your service $1 per year per user of your service. If open AI gets 100 million users a year, they should pay $100 million to have the New York Times per year. Yeah, forever. That I SPEAKER_05: believe, okay, and they made I think New York Times is that SPEAKER_05: value $240 per user, so they would be making two point, sorry, 24 billion, right? And so they would just have to fork out, you know, small amount. Yeah, if they're making, you said they're making SPEAKER_06: $20 per month or two or three per year, your 240 per year. So SPEAKER_06: they're all they're paying less than 1% of the New York Times, one of the top websites, they're paying 40 bps to them. Yeah. And then they let's say they paid Reddit and Quora 10 bps 15 bps, and let's say 30% of open AI revenue went to licensing deals. That seems pretty fair to me. If 30% if Google if 30% of SPEAKER_06: Google's revenue went to publishers right now, hundreds of billions of dollars or me, I don't we wouldn't have the problem with publishers being underfunded right now. So I think yeah, I'm going to give it the my best J Cal judgment. So J Cal judgment call. Okay. 70 30 split. The language models keep SPEAKER_06: 70 30% goes to who they trained on. And you got to show up, you got to have a license, you got to have New York times.com slash license dot txt. And the license txt should if you make it available, then you should have in there what it costs and you say it's $1 per user per year forever. And it don't do a one SPEAKER_06: time fee. I think the one time fee is the stupid stupidest thing you could ever do. It should be a yearly licensing fee. If you want my book in your index angel, I should get paid. SPEAKER_06: I don't know what's a reasonable amount $25,000 a year. What about all my knowledge end of twist? SPEAKER_06: Yeah, okay. So if Listen, if they said if you if YouTube wants to train their model on twist 2000 episodes, I would say, I don't know $100 an episode per year $10 an episode we I would take 25,000 because once it's done at once you don't need to go backwards, SPEAKER_05: right? No, but I want to because just like artists should get paid SPEAKER_06: residuals for their music so that it encourages more people to keep making music so that they can make music for the rest of my time because YouTube and opening I are going to be making money on it for those years for those who make money on it for those years. Why should I should? Yeah. Okay. So SPEAKER_06: that's what this is where fairness comes into play for artists. This is my belief. Yeah, I get royalties on my SPEAKER_06: books. I can have continuing revenue from this week and startups if the I can take my stuff off of YouTube anytime. And I can just let people go direct. If YouTube wants my stuff, they want to do a language model on my stuff. They want to index it, it should just be they should cut a deal with me. And people like, Oh, that's not possible. You know what opening I cuts a deal with every employee. Yeah. Right. Google SPEAKER_06: has 10s of 1000s of employees, they cut a deal with every employee doesn't mean it doesn't have to be standard. But they can do it. They can do it. And you know, maybe if you're in the long tail, if you have under x number of pieces of content, maybe you just have to take the standard deal. But maybe when you're over 1000 podcast episodes or over 10 million listeners, then you have the ability to negotiate. So again, I would just put it in my license dot txt. Here's my license terms. SPEAKER_05: I like your approach. I'm in like a different technological headspace on it. Going back to this reasoning thing. I think we are at a place now where we have models that can reason. And we don't need to use them for information retrieval. So you know, if you're trying to get the best review of an espresso maker, you can basically have the model reason to go out to something I have access to and pay for it and go get it. So if I'm already subscribed to New York Times, it should be able to use my subscription to go get that from wire cut 100% right SPEAKER_06: and New York Times will provide that. And so provide that. Yeah, SPEAKER_05: exactly. And I don't think models need that information anymore. I don't think models get any better by feeding them all the wire cutter information. And so he adjusted it. Well, I SPEAKER_05: think even if you took it out and retrain the model, I think we're at his place now where their reasoning capabilities are so good that if you going back to that image, right, that we just showed with the multimodal model, I do think a different business model will will emerge, which is more like, connect it to things I have access to rather than that licensing approach. I think that's what will have ended up happening. I SPEAKER_06: think for people who have large amounts of data, and that data is continuing to grow, because the New York Times said, like, their goal is to like, increase the amount of content they have SPEAKER_06: by 50%, like the number of articles by 50% in the next four years or something. Wow. Okay, you probably want to have SPEAKER_06: access to those next 50% increase. I don't think it's gonna be the newest precious information. What if the advice on cancer treatments? What if the political landscape and history of Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukraine changes, you know, and you want to have that information in your in your model, like and it's in the New York Times, and that's the freshest data, it might be worthy to you to give them 100 million a year to have that new access. Yeah, like you may want SPEAKER_06: your model to have that when you comment on Ukraine, you know, is David Sachs right about Ukraine or not? And like, well, we'll SPEAKER_06: find out in the next five years if who was right, Biden, NATO, sad. It's, it's so it's, it's a real intersection between SPEAKER_05: technology and publishing and then human knowledge. And like, how does that all work together? It's a really end, make being SPEAKER_06: respectful of content creators is the best model for technologists we have not always been. And I sit right at the I sit at the crossroads of both. Yeah, I want to see the most powerful AI. And I want to see humans who create great content be compensated for it in the long term. Yeah, and it's so SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: unfair. And this is the great thing about the New York Times lawsuit. And I applaud the New York Times for filing it in such a deliberate way. Because what they've done is they've proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that these things are getting massive value and taking value away from the New York Times franchise because the New York Times is behind the paywall. They require subscriptions open AI requires subscriptions. And so I think actually, as a human being, you will be making your decision to SPEAKER_06: get this information. Is it better use the opening AI interface or the New York Times interface and I find myself SPEAKER_06: doing searches about I literally did one on coffee grinders. I was looking for a coffee grinder. I did it on chat GPT and I got everything I wanted. Then I went to wire cutter and I was like, Oh, wait a second. This looks familiar. It was like somebody had copied their homework. You know, when you take the two multiple choice tests and you hold it up to the light. And you can see like, Oh my god, you picked all the wrong answers as well as the correct ones. Yeah. Yeah. And I bought SPEAKER_06: the OXO $99 or whatever it was great coffee grinder. I love it. It's great for drip coffee. It may not be what espresso people want. But I'm paying for both subscriptions. I think people SPEAKER_06: will pick one. Yeah. And I think they proved it perfectly. And SPEAKER_06: then I don't know if you saw over the weekend, there was a person who did what I did with the Jedi's member. I did the Jedi. Somebody said make me to Italian cartoon characters in a race or whatever. Yeah, and it made Luigi and it made Mario. And then they did it again, like couple of days later. Yeah. And SPEAKER_06: it wouldn't let them make Mario and Luigi anymore. Yeah. And so SPEAKER_06: opening AI is going through right now and testing and removing characters they know they don't have the IP for because they know they're going to get smashed with a Disney lawsuit. Yeah. And a Nintendo lawsuit any day. It is Nintendo's right to make an AI generative AI where you can make the characters and make birthday cards out of them or, you know, tweets out of them. That's their IP. They have the right to make those derivative products, not Dolly chat, GPT $20 a month. SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_05: Yeah. When the other ones are doing something similar. I read something somewhere about my journey where people were creating recreate in the latest version of recreating like, you SPEAKER_05: know, Marvel superheroes and stuff. And so of course, and you know what, I want to do that. Yeah. But if I'm going to do SPEAKER_06: that, I kind of feel like it should be part of my Disney Plus subscription. I shouldn't be doing it for free. Yeah. Now I SPEAKER_06: know everybody wants everything for free. But why would Stan Lee create the next Marvel characters? If there's no residuals or no rights to and everybody can just have a free for all? Why should open AI or mid journey or stable diffusion get to make Marvel characters for my birthday party invite, you know, if I want to do it an Avengers birthday party invite, I should be paying a license to work should be part of my Disney Plus subscription. That's only fair. It should be part of my opening AI subscription. Yeah, yeah. 100% if you wanted to make SPEAKER_06: a parody, parody is allowed. But if you are providing a service to create parody that's not allowed. So if I need a SPEAKER_06: parody, you can go and create memes. Well, if I made memes on SPEAKER_06: my own using a local version, and I'm not trying to make money from it. It's under parody. It's fair use. Okay, if I make SPEAKER_06: a tool to make parodies and I charge for that tool, then I like a meter here and then if I'm the meme generate now I'm in SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: trouble. So this is what people don't understand about copyright robots. So nuanced that people are like, well, why can't I could draw it myself? So yes. But if you started charging for drawing it, now you start to get into a different place. So if I did, if I started charging people on the web $100 to make versions of Iron Man, or versions of Jedi, yeah. And I SPEAKER_06: named them and I put Star Wars on it. That's not I'm not allowed to do that. Right. And here's the Mario Brothers Dolly doesn't need. So this guy, Gary Marcus is just doing what I did. Yeah, like a month ago, right? He copied my thing here. But he said video game Italian and it made Mario Brothers. Of course, it made Mario we're getting into the place where these SPEAKER_06: things are going to need to block certain characters and not have the output as well. So I think and I think that's right. I think that's the right thing to do. And I'll be honest, I said something in my newsletter, I think I may have to do a clarification on. I said something to the effect when I wrote about this the day it happened, that a bunch of people at opening I use the stolen content to make a bunch of money in the secondary offering. Yeah, I actually don't know. I was kind of reading their minds. I don't know that each individual opening I person is acting that way. So I take that back. I'm going to clarify it. That sentence because I don't want to mind read them or their intentions. They might be just doing AI because I think it's good for society. Or it might SPEAKER_06: just be a job and they don't feel particularly either way about it. But the fact is, it's unfair that open AI is selling billions of dollars based upon of shares. Yeah, they might sell more shares in their secondary than the entire value of the New York Times. If they sell 8 billion in secondary, which is completely possible over the coming years, they sell eight because a company let's say the employees own 30% companies $30 billion New York Times worth 8 billion. So when those employees liquidate, they're going to get four times the value of the New York Times, and they built it on the New York Times content. That's unfair. And that's where they're going to get so demolished in court for damages. The damages on this could be SPEAKER_06: unbelievably high. Because so much commerce if open AI wasn't so successful, and it was a nonprofit, it would be so hard to do damages. But once the employees are selling billions of dollars in shares, and they have 100 million paid subscribers or whatever they have, that's when it becomes profoundly unfair. I just did Thanos as a farmer in mid SPEAKER_05: journey. Yeah, that should be done on Disney Plus, that should SPEAKER_06: be a feature of Disney Plus subscriptions, make your own characters on Disney Plus, and then it puts a logo there made by Disney Plus, there's going to be a language model made by New York Times. And this is my thesis. What if the New York Times competes with open AI heads up, they take a language SPEAKER_06: model that was built on the New York Times content. And then they have a model where having access to that is pretty dope, and it increases the number of New York Times subscribers. And SPEAKER_06: then they go by in gadget from Yahoo, they go by TechCrunch, they go by a bunch of they go by ready, well, they will take one of the big open source models and then to fine tune it with SPEAKER_05: their own data or hopefully that model wouldn't be built on SPEAKER_06: stolen content either. So on the open source models, we can see SPEAKER_05: where all the training data came from. SPEAKER_06: So they did that. And then they made the New York Times model as long as they don't have to give to get like we talked about earlier the program. The New York Times is a competitive chat, GPT. And that's what the courts will realize. And I am the tip of the spear. I pay $300 to both companies, I will not SPEAKER_06: pay $300 to both companies forever. I will pick one. And if the if it goes away chat GPT is going, I'll probably cancel my New York Times because I'll get all the value from that. Yeah. SPEAKER_05: Yeah. I mean, Apple does is really nicely with the news. Apple News Plus thing. Yeah, they pay. They you have to have SPEAKER_06: it and I have what's it called Apple one or something? Yeah. For my family that has 40 bucks a month. Exactly. I spent $500 SPEAKER_05: SPEAKER_06: a year with Apple made it much more expensive. It's like it's SPEAKER_05: more expensive. Now mine's $38 a month. So it's 500 a year SPEAKER_06: basically. Yeah, I get Apple Arcade, Apple Music, Apple News, SPEAKER_03: yeah, everything Apple, TV plus for my whole family and two SPEAKER_06: terabytes of storage. It's the greatest deal ever. It's $100 per family member. It's great. Yeah. And it's simple. So this SPEAKER_03: SPEAKER_06: is what chat GPT should do. They should have part of your subscription be for one because they respect it. Right. Yeah. Now imagine if chat GPT said include New York Times for $2 more a month. include Disney characters for $5 a month for SPEAKER_06: $10 a year $1 a month, that could be a great way for them to make cut commercial deals with people. And they're clearly they SPEAKER_06: want a deal. I think, you know, if this is my challenge to Sam Waltman, if you're such a great deal maker, you know, people are saying is such a great deal maker, well, then make a deal. Let's make a deal for content creators make a deal. You know, like make a revenue model that's sustainable. All right, this has been another amazing episode. We went a little overtime. Happy New Year again. Yada yada. And we'll talk soon. Bye bye.