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SPEAKER_13: Hey, this is Jeff Guo. Today's show is a rerun of an episode that first ran in 2015. Enjoy!
SPEAKER_03: Alright, Robert, this is really exciting. We're in midtown Manhattan right across from Bryant Park. And I want to try an experiment which has asked people to name off the top of their head as many mid-sized sedans as they know. Audi A7, BMW 5 Series, Ford Focus, Kia Spectra, Chevy Impala, Dodge Charger.
SPEAKER_07: And BMW X5, BMW X3, the Ford Series 435s, and Nissan Altima. Okay, I get it. The answer is sort of run the gamut. We have foreign cars, American cars, lots of different cars.
SPEAKER_03: Exactly. But let's try something a little less easy. Let's ask some of these people how many pickup trucks they can name.
Pickup trucks? Pickup trucks.
SPEAKER_00: Ford F-150s.
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, definitely.
SPEAKER_00: Well, I guess it's the Ford F-150.
SPEAKER_11: Ford F-450? No, the 550, whatever it's called.
SPEAKER_07: The Ford F-150, okay. F-150, alright, and then you got the Ram, right? Ford F-150.
SPEAKER_02: I think I see where you're going with this, which is when you talk about trucks, you're essentially talking about American trucks. The Ford F-150, other American-made trucks. Nobody named a foreign truck.
SPEAKER_03: Exactly. That's because the American trucks just dominate the space. I mean, absolutely completely dominate the space. And there's a reason for that, Robert. The reason is chicken. And not just chicken, but frozen chicken parts shipped to Germany after World War II. Believe me, we'll explain it.
SPEAKER_02: Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Sonari Blanton.
And I'm Robert Smith. Today on the show, chicken, trucks, trucks, and chicken, and how a trade dispute can change the entire world.
SPEAKER_06:
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SPEAKER_02: Okay, we're going to lay it out for you how a frozen chicken drumstick led directly to the awesomeness of the Ford F-150.
It goes back to after World War II in the late 50s, early 60s, and the European economy is finally getting better, and everyone's sort of helping each other in the world. This is an era of free trade. And Americans are going absolutely bonkers for a German import.
SPEAKER_08:
Richtigen, Tuchteigen, Wirtbürstendigen, Volkswagen.
Beetles were everywhere in the late 50s and early 60s, and it became sort of almost a craze.
SPEAKER_10:
That is the voice of Bob Lutz. He's a car guy's car guy. He's worked for pretty much every car company.
SPEAKER_03: GM, Ford, Chrysler, BMW, GM again. Everybody had to have one Beetle, two Beetles. They had to have a Beetle plus a Volkswagen bus.
SPEAKER_10: And it became a sort of a cult object. And I think everybody was worried about it.
Well, everybody who worked in the American auto industry was worried about it.
SPEAKER_03: Now, meanwhile, over in Germany, they're having their own sort of trade invasion. This is not cars. This is, as we promised, the chicken parts.
SPEAKER_02:
Because remember, up to this time, chicken was sort of a luxury in Germany.
They were recovering from the war, and they had their own chicken manufacturers, but they were really expensive. In comes frozen American chicken. Frozen American chicken on the bountiful American farms shipped over to Germany.
And all of a sudden, in Berlin, you can have chicken every night for dinner. They are going crazy for it.
In fact, we looked at the stats. In 1961 alone, German chicken consumption went up 23%. If we were going crazy in the United States for the Volkswagen Beetle, the Germans were going crazy for American chicken.
SPEAKER_03: Yeah, and that's the dream of free trade. They get cheap chicken. We get cheap cars. It's a bonus for everybody.
SPEAKER_03:
Except for the German chicken farmers. The German chicken farmers look around, and their expensive chickens are losing out to these cheap American chickens.
SPEAKER_02: And so they do what farmers everywhere do.
SPEAKER_03: They went to their government, and they said, protect us against this cheap chicken that's flooding the market. The German government responded, and they started a tax on American chicken up to 50%, which is huge. And the Americans are like, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, what? Germany, we just helped rebuild you after the war.
SPEAKER_02: And you want to start a trade dispute? You want to tax our chicken? Fine. We will find some German things that we can tax. It's basic playground logic, right? Tit for tat. So the U.S. plans its retaliation. They draft this idea aimed at Volkswagen. Jon Krafchick is with Truecar.com. So in December of 1963, Lyndon Johnson, who had just become president less than two weeks before, signed into effect this tariff, a 25% tariff, on vehicles that were deemed to be primarily commercial goods-carrying vehicles.
SPEAKER_12:
The chicken tax. They actually called it the chicken tax.
SPEAKER_02: These are pickup trucks and commercial vans, and it's not just German pickup trucks. It's all foreign trucks.
SPEAKER_03: If you want to make a truck and ship it to the U.S., you got to pay 25% extra. It's called the chicken tax.
SPEAKER_02: And it changed the American car industry overnight.
The first thing that happens is that foreign trucks are all of a sudden way too expensive to compete in this country. So, for instance, Volkswagen had this pickup truck. Basically, it's a VW bus with a flatbed in back. And this was going to be their next big thing in America after the Beetle and the regular-sized bus. But once the chicken tax goes in, it is 25% more expensive. They pull it from the market. They're like, we cannot sell this car, this truck, in America.
SPEAKER_03: The American companies are obviously happy. There's less competition. It also allowed the American car companies to sort of kick back and relax a little bit, not really innovate.
Because of the chicken tax, American trucks basically stayed the same over the years.
SPEAKER_02:
I mean, they got bigger. They got fancier. They certainly got more expensive. But without foreign competition, there weren't a lot of new ideas in the space. You could imagine if Hyundai had had the opportunity to build some funky, fuel-efficient truck they brought to America that would have inspired American manufacturers to be like, oh, I'm competing with Hyundai on that.
But there was no foreign competition. There was no incentive. Once you put a tariff on something, the innovation that would have gone into the product goes into getting around the tariff.
SPEAKER_03:
And that's what the car companies started to do. Robert, things got really crazy really quickly. Toyota says, so we can't directly ship our trucks from Japan? I'll tell you what we'll do. We'll build them in parts, giant parts. They shipped them to the U.S. And then snap those parts together, put them on a train, and there you go. They got around the chicken tax. Because technically they were assembling the car, even though other parts were made in Japan, they were assembling it in the United States.
SPEAKER_02: Yeah, tighten a couple of screws, made in America. Good to go. And U.S. Customs was like, yeah, no, that's not going to play.
SPEAKER_03: And so I'm sure all the foreign car manufacturers at this point just gave up trying to get around the chicken tax.
SPEAKER_02:
Of course not, because this is America, the most important market for any kind of vehicle.
SPEAKER_03: Of course they wanted to get their trucks in. Subaru, which is a great car maker, they make SUVs, why not make a truck? So they did in the 80s. I'm sure you remember the Subaru Brat. The Subaru Brat. My neighbor had one of these. It was amazing. From 50 feet away, it looked like a pickup truck.
SPEAKER_02: But when you got up close, there were these two flimsy plastic seats just bolted into the bed of the truck.
And the idea was, well, those seats are for people, therefore it must not be a vehicle that's designed to carry goods. I thought it was a very clever solution.
SPEAKER_12: The U.S. government did not think this was a clever solution. They imposed the chicken tax and the Brat went away.
SPEAKER_02: As time goes by and the global auto industry gets more interconnected and complicated, you can't parse out necessarily which is an American company, which is a foreign company, because say a company like Ford makes cars and trucks on five continents.
SPEAKER_03: And all of a sudden American companies started to encounter the same problem that foreign companies were, which is American companies had to deal with the chicken tax.
SPEAKER_02: For instance, Ford makes a cargo van in Europe. It's called the Transit Connect. But they didn't want to have to pay the chicken tax.
SPEAKER_03: So what they did was they took this cargo van, put some seats where the cargo was supposed to go, shipped it to the U.S. and said, hey, that's not a cargo van. That's a passenger van. The chicken tax doesn't apply. Here's Sean McElhendon from the Center for Automotive Research. And when they get here to the United States, to let's say Ohio, they rip the seats out, punch out the windows and cover them with metal panels and resell the vehicle as a freight van. And it's cheaper to do that than pay the tariff.
SPEAKER_03: After they took the seats out, they sent them back to Europe, put them in another van and shipped them back to the U.S. to be taken out again, over and over and over again in this vicious, unvirtuous cycle. All of this trade gymnastics may sound like insanity and maybe it is insanity, but at the end of the day, the chicken tax accomplished exactly what it was supposed to accomplish, which is the dominance of the American truck.
SPEAKER_02: American trucks own the road and they have for 50 years. In fact, everyone agrees that American trucks are now so good, have had such an advantage for so long that even if you got rid of the chicken tax, it would take years and years and years for the rest of the world to catch up with you. That was Robert Smith and Sonari Glinton in 2015. So now that American trucks dominate the market, do we still need the chicken tax? Robert and Sonari put that question to the CEOs of two major car companies. That is after the break.
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SPEAKER_00: Hi, it's Terry Gross, the host of Fresh Air. We bring you in-depth, long form interviews with actors, directors, musicians, authors, journalists and more. Listen to our Peabody Award winning Fresh Air podcast from W H Y Y and NPR.
SPEAKER_03: If American trucks are so good, why is the 25 percent chicken tax still in place? At the most recent Detroit Auto Show, I got to speak to Mark Fields. He's the brand new CEO of Ford Motor Company. And right before I talked to him, he had just unveiled what almost every Ford executive would call the most important truck to come out of Detroit in 50 years. So I had to ask him, if your trucks are so awesome, why do you still need the chicken tax?
SPEAKER_11: Well, in terms of the you know, clearly when you look, we're free traders by design. We have been the best selling vehicle in the U.S. for 33 years. Well, we want to make sure we're on a level playing field and right now around the world. Not so level depending upon things.
SPEAKER_03: And you think it's fine. You want to keep it. Do you need it though? That's the question. I think, you know, that it's on the books right now. And, you know, we want that's the reality that we're dealing with.
SPEAKER_11: Robert, let me translate that for you. I speak fluent auto executive. What he's saying is we don't really need the chicken tax, but we aren't going to demand that we get rid of it. After all, it kind of benefits us.
SPEAKER_03:
I thought that went so well. Why stop at one CEO? Let's go on to the next. So I talked to Sergio Marchione. He's the head of the FCA Group, which is the owner of Chrysler. And this is where it gets weird because this company is a European company and an American company. So not only is it helped by the chicken tax, it's also harmed by it as well. I'm the wrong guy to ask that question because I would not have the chicken tax. But that's just my view.
SPEAKER_03: Oh, why not? I mean, you're the right person to answer. You're in charge of an American car company that benefits.
I am. No, but we benefit when you run a global organization. The chicken tax is an incredibly protective measure to try and deal with, I think, an ill perceived threat to the stability of the auto sector. I don't think it does much. But it exists, so it's going to take a while to try and take it off the table.
SPEAKER_09:
SPEAKER_03: Finally, how much of... That's an interesting question. Why would you ask of the chicken tax? Of all the taxes you could be asking?
SPEAKER_09:
Because it's weird. It's weird that this tariff exists. I mean, why not compete on a completely even playing field?
SPEAKER_03:
SPEAKER_09: You sound pretty good to me. I like your story. I didn't say anything. I'm not the guy that invented the chicken tax. I comply with the chicken tax. Do I need the chicken tax? The answer is no.
So, Sonari, even with CEO doublespeak, I'm not hearing these guys saying like, we are going to die as companies without the chicken tax.
SPEAKER_02:
Well, of course not, because they have such an advantage in the minds of the people who buy pickup trucks. It would take forever to break that bond with the American pickup truck.
SPEAKER_03: And that's the funny thing about tariffs, which is once tariffs go into place, there's no real incentive to get rid of them. Even if you don't need them anymore, they stick around.
SPEAKER_02: And there's a really important reason for this, which is once you have a tariff, it becomes a bargaining chip for you in the next trade negotiations. So, for instance, right now, the US is in the middle of this giant trade deal, the TPP, 12 countries, including Japan, 12 countries who would love for the US chicken tax to disappear.
And when we talked to John Krafchuck, he said that you can be sure that during trade negotiations, this is something that they are talking about, the chicken tax.
SPEAKER_12: This 25% tariff is being used in a way as a bargaining chip that benefits US trade negotiators as they seek other concessions from other nations in other industries.
So it may very well be that from an industry standpoint, there's no real love or need for it. I believe that's the case. I want to believe that's the case in my heart.
But it's really a tool, a bargaining chip for US trade negotiators to affect a better total outcome across many industries.
SPEAKER_02: So, for instance, California farmers grow some of the best rice in the world. They would love to ship their rice to a place that frankly loves rice, Japan, except Japan has a tariff on rice, a protective tariff.
And so there is a potential deal, a potential bargaining chip whereby you can say like, hey, we will drop this chicken tax on trucks, Japan, if you let our rice come in without a tariff.
SPEAKER_03:
So here we are back at the same place we were 50 years ago. Back then we traded chicken for trucks and now we'll trade trucks for rice.
SPEAKER_13: That was Sonari Glinton and Robert Smith back in 2015. In the time since this episode originally aired, the US famously pulled out of the TPP and the chicken tax has remained firmly in place. On the next Planet Money, the story of how we uncovered one of humanity's greatest inventions. The muggo lunch. I mean, it's so 1970s. I love it.
SPEAKER_00:
Mugga lunch, muggo lunch. Mug-o lunch. Mug-o lunch. I mean, honestly, my first thought was I said a Harry Potter thing, but then I was like, oh, no, no, wait, it's a lunch. It's a lunch in a mug.
SPEAKER_13: It's our annual Groundhog Day show where we search for all of the best and often weirdest stories in economic history that happened to take place on February 2nd.
You can email us. We're at planetmoney at NPR dot org or find us on TikTok, Facebook, Instagram. We are at Planet Money.
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