The Fellowship of the Tree Rings

Episode Summary

Three dendrochronologists (scientists who study tree rings) meet at a bar during a conference and come up with an idea to combine their research. Grant Harley had discovered very narrow rings in pine trees in Florida, indicating the trees were stressed. He theorizes the narrow rings represent hurricanes. Marta Dominguez del Mas studies shipwrecks and suggests combining the shipwreck data with Grant's tree ring data. More shipwrecks would confirm more hurricanes. They acquire shipwreck data from 1492-1825 and find it matches Grant's hurricane tree ring years, confirming his theory. The tree rings triple the amount of historical hurricane data we have for the region. Looking at the data, Valerie Truhey notices a 70-year lull in shipwrecks/hurricanes from 1645-1715. She recognizes it as the Maunder Minimum, a period of low solar activity and cooler temperatures. Grant connects the lull to the Golden Age of Piracy in the Caribbean, as fewer hurricanes meant better conditions for pirates. The Maunder Minimum's cooler period also enabled the Sugar Revolution and expansion of the slave trade in the Caribbean, kickstarting capitalism and the Industrial Revolution. So the subtle climate impact of a weaker sun shaped world history. Today's human-caused climate change could have even greater rippling effects.

Episode Show Notes

At a tree ring conference in the relatively treeless city of Tucson, Arizona, three scientists walk into a bar. The trio gets to talking, trying to explain a mysterious set of core samples from the Florida Keys. At some point, they come up with a harebrained idea: put the tree rings next to a seemingly unrelated dataset. Once they do, they notice something that no one has ever noticed before, a force of nature that helped shape modern human history and that is eerily similar to what’s happening on our planet right now. With help from pirates, astronomers and an 80-year-old bartender, this episode will change the way you look at the sun. (Warning: Do not look at the sun.) 

Special thanks to Scott St George, Nathaniel Millett, Michael Charles Stambaugh, Justin Maxwell, Clay Tucker, Willem Klooster, Kevin Anchukaitis

EPISODE CREDITS

Reported by - Latif Nasserwith help from - Ekedi Fausther-Keeys and Maria Paz GutierrezProduced by - Maria Paz Gutierrez and Pat Walterswith help from - Ekedi Fausther-Keeys and Sachi MulkeyMixed by - Jeremy Bloomwith mixing help from - Arianne WackFact-checking by - Natalie Middletonand Edited by  - Pat Walters

CITATIONS:

Books: 

Tree Story (https://zpr.io/ULX279uzgW9q) by Valerie TrouetSweetness and Power (https://zpr.io/cUEGqGGWMSaQ) by Sidney Mintz

Our newsletter comes out every Wednesday. It includes short essays, recommendations, and details about other ways to interact with the show. Sign up (https://radiolab.org/newsletter)!

Radiolab is supported by listeners like you. Support Radiolab by becoming a member of The Lab (https://members.radiolab.org/) today.

Follow our show on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook @radiolab, and share your thoughts with us by emailing radiolab@wnyc.org.

 

Leadership support for Radiolab’s science programming is provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Science Sandbox, a Simons Foundation Initiative, and the John Templeton Foundation. Foundational support for Radiolab was provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation.

Episode Transcript

SPEAKER_07: Radiolab is supported by Apple Card. Apple Card has a cash-back rewards program unlike other credit cards. You earn unlimited daily cash on every purchase, receive it daily, and can grow it at 4.15% annual percentage yield when you open a savings account. Apply for Apple Card in the Wallet app on iPhone. Apple Card subject to credit approval. Savings is available to Apple Card owners subject to eligibility requirements. Savings accounts provided by Goldman Sachs Bank USA. Member FDIC terms apply. SPEAKER_05: Okay, I'm just gonna start. Tree walks into a bar. SPEAKER_05: Okay. Bartender asks, what do you have? Tree says. Yeah. Oh, you want to guess? SPEAKER_07: Well, no, I'm just, I'm already dismayed by your concept because trees, as I last checked, can't walk. They're rooted to the ground. Just go with it, Lulu. Just go with it. Come on. Okay. Tree walks into a bar. SPEAKER_05: Okay. Yeah. Bartender says, what do you have? SPEAKER_07: I've got a branching decision ahead of me, but I'll go with a logger. SPEAKER_05: Anything but a logger. SPEAKER_07: Oh, anything but a logger. Okay. SPEAKER_05: That's right. Another one. Three dendrochronologists walk into a bar and... Okay, wait. Dendrochronologists are people who look at dendrites in your brain. SPEAKER_05: No, they are people who study tree rings. SPEAKER_07: Oh, they just look at the rings inside a tree stump? SPEAKER_05: That's what they do. That's what they study. Okay, so three dendrochronologists walk into a bar and... SPEAKER_05: I mean, that's not a joke. That's the beginning of the story. Okay. The rest of the story is basically three tree ring scientists walk into a bar and as the night goes on and as the talk gets a little boozier, they come up with this kind of hair brained idea to take this one particular set of tree rings, to put it next to a seemingly unrelated thing. But in doing that, they start to see all kinds of new things that they've never seen before that maybe nobody has ever seen before, including an invisible hand shaping the history of our planet and the history of us. SPEAKER_07: All right, well, before we take off on this wild tale, should we do the who we are thing? I'm Lethef Nasser. SPEAKER_05: I'm Lulu Miller. This of course is Radiolab. All right, so set it up for us. Where does it all start? SPEAKER_05: Okay, so we're in Tucson, Arizona at a bar called Tiger's Taproom. It's more than 100 years old and it's sort of famous locally for its very old bartender who has been serving drinks there since 1959. Cool. All right, now I'm picturing Gandalf like serving drinks to these three tree ring SPEAKER_07: scientists sitting there looking at the bar, counting the rings on the bar. SPEAKER_06: We're not freaks. We go to a bar, we go and drink. We don't count rings. SPEAKER_05: This is Valerie. I'm Valerie Truhey. SPEAKER_06: Scientist number one. And I'm a professor of dendrochronology at the University of Arizona. Which is in Tucson. Where you would not necessarily expect a tree ring lab because there's not many trees around. SPEAKER_05: But kind of weirdly, she says this is actually where the modern field was born. Because the first dendrochronologist was actually an astronomer. SPEAKER_06: Who was studying the sun. Andrew Ellicott Douglas. That happened because... He thought to himself... Well, trees, they're sensitive to the sun. You know, they eat sunshine. And they get to be very old. So maybe I can learn something about the sun from the rings in trees. SPEAKER_05: Like trees are the original astronomers recording their solar observations. Yeah, exactly. SPEAKER_06: Huh. SPEAKER_07: But what could you actually learn about the sun from the rings? Isn't it just like each year the tree grows, it gets a ring and you learn how old it is by counting them? Like, is there a thing beyond the counting the rings? Yes. SPEAKER_06: So it's a very good question. SPEAKER_05: So Valerie explained, yes, it's true. Most trees grow a new ring every year. SPEAKER_06: But what fewer people know is that not every ring is equally wide, not every ring is equally dense, not every ring has the same chemistry. SPEAKER_05: And it's in those differences, Valerie says, where you can learn all kinds of stuff about the tree and even stuff not about the tree. Exactly. So like what? SPEAKER_07: Like what? SPEAKER_05: Well... You could learn about the weather. How hot or how cold it is. You can see how much it rains. Storage. Or didn't. Droughts. You could see trauma. Yeah. You know, which could create a very skinny ring. You could see fires, which leave scars or bugs, which leave these red or blue stains. SPEAKER_06: Human history as well. All kinds of stuff. SPEAKER_05: OK. Continue. So back to Tucson. Valerie's at this bar to meet up with two other scientists because they're all in town for this big conference. SPEAKER_06: An international tree ring conference. SPEAKER_05: For all of the dendrochronologists in the Americas. Is it like four people? SPEAKER_07: No. OK. How many people is it? SPEAKER_06: Oh, in total? Maybe 200, 250 people. A lot. SPEAKER_05: And among them were Valerie's bar buddies, Marta. Marta Dominguez del Mas. Spanish scientist. Specialized in dendroarcheology. Studies the wood in shipwrecks. What? Yeah. Like she dives down and examines the rings in the wood of the hulls of the ships that wrecked hundreds of years ago. Oh. Yeah. The treasure is the wood. Third one. My name is Grant Harley. Grant. Originally from Florida. He's a paleoclimatologist. Associate professor of geography at the University of Idaho. Uses tree rings to study past and future climate. So it's one of the nights of this conference. I think it was the last evening of the conference. SPEAKER_06: That they hit the bar. That they hit the bar. SPEAKER_05: So they're sitting there drinking some beers. Yeah. Like we're sitting around this table and we start talking about this research project that had to go on. And Grant says something like, I've got a puzzle and I'm not quite sure how to solve it. And I'm wondering if you two can help me out. Okay. So he says, for the past few years, I've been doing this research down in Florida. Like all the way, like almost to Key West. Right near the southernmost point of the US. On this island called Big Pine Key. Big Pine Key. Studying these really gnarly pine trees that are basically like big bonsai trees. And he tells Valerie and Marta, one day who's out there, you know, just doing his normal research, which is like taking these pencil shaped core samples from these trees. And he notices something he hadn't seen before. SPEAKER_06: They said he saw these tree rings. These like really, really narrow rings. SPEAKER_05: So narrow, he could barely see them. Super, super narrow. Like really, really small. That automatically tells you like, wow. Something bad happened here. That tree was really stressed. So he's going through the list of things that he knows can stress out a tree. Drought. Maybe it didn't rain that much. Insects can have it different. Maybe the tree got attacked by beetles or it was unusually cold. Keep on going back to the drawing board to find out what is the signal in these tree rings. Until he comes up with a theory. Hurricanes. Hurricanes? SPEAKER_07: But wouldn't, wouldn't a hurricane make a fat ring because it's bringing so much rain? SPEAKER_06: Well, I mean, a hurricane, as you know, is pretty powerful. Yeah. SPEAKER_05: In the gallery, a hurricane just shreds a tree. SPEAKER_06: Doesn't just lose its needles. It can also lose its big branches, obviously. But how would you prove that? SPEAKER_05: Turns out, Noah, Noah, as in the government weather people, has this data set. It's just a big list of all the hurricanes that have happened in the Atlantic since 1851 that the government made by combing through old newspapers. We compared that list to those years that he saw with very narrow rings and they matched. SPEAKER_06: Bingo. In other words, he was right. They were caused by hurricanes. SPEAKER_05: And Valerie says this match was exciting on a couple of different levels. For one thing, I don't think I'd heard about using tree rings to reconstruct hurricanes. SPEAKER_06: It just felt like a new way to use tree rings to understand the world. SPEAKER_05: But also it gave us new hurricane data, which we don't have a lot of. Because there are so few of them. SPEAKER_06: So it's hard to calculate how frequently they happen because you have so few data points, data points exactly. SPEAKER_05: And what Grant realizes is he might be sitting on a lot more hurricane data points because his trees, the trees with the skinny rings that seem to represent hurricanes, they go back way further than the government data. Correct. They go back another 150 years-ish to 1707. So Grant's thinking he might be able to use his tree rings to almost double the amount of historical hurricane data we have for this part of the world. Problem is, he now needs something outside of the tree rings to prove that. And this is essentially the puzzle that he brings to Valerie and Marta at the bar. SPEAKER_06: How do I prove this, that this is hurricanes? And Marta... Marta Dominguez del Mas... Is like, it's funny you say that because a lot of the shipwrecks I dive at wrecked because SPEAKER_05: of hurricanes. SPEAKER_06: I'm tired of fleets going down because of hurricanes. And so I just spit it out. I'm like, what if we, what if we linked the two? SPEAKER_05: Like what if you put the tree ring data where you have the skinny rings that you think are hurricanes next to a big list of all the shipwrecks that happened for the last few hundred years? Would they match up? SPEAKER_07: Because if they do, we're seeing what? SPEAKER_05: Because if they do, it's like the shipwrecks and the tree rings are both showing us hurricanes. It's like double reference. Huh, got it. So, okay, so they have this idea at the bar that night, literally the next morning they SPEAKER_05: get together and start looking around for a list of all the shipwrecks that have happened in that part of the world. And fortunately... SPEAKER_06: There's a very good record, written documentary record of the Spanish shipping trade from 1492 up until it ends around 1825. And when they would wreck, they would keep track of where they wrecked, when they wrecked, why they wrecked, whether it's pirates or hurricanes. SPEAKER_05: They get their hands on this list, they eliminate the shipwrecks they know were caused by something other than hurricanes or that are in the wrong area or that, you know, we're not in the right time of year. And then Grant takes that shipwreck spreadsheet and merges it with the tree ring spreadsheet SPEAKER_06: and I kid you not, they're almost identical. They match. You see the exact same pattern when you compare the shipwreck years to hurricane years with the tree rings. So it's like, okay, fat ring, no shipwrecks, fat ring, no shipwrecks, fat ring, no shipwrecks, SPEAKER_05: narrow ring, tons of shipwrecks. SPEAKER_06: And that, yeah, that was the moment where I'm like, yeah, this is it. This is working. SPEAKER_07: Wow. There's something so like satisfying about possibly catching an objective, possibly an objective truth, an objective happening with these silent bystanders. It's just like a tree. Yes. It just feels harder to come by these days. Yeah. SPEAKER_06: You're spot on. That's what I really like about trees. You can't say the tree's saying this or a tree's saying that because you can see it right there in the wood. You can't, you can't make it up. It's right there. Tree's on light. Okay. SPEAKER_07: And just so I am clear on what they are not lying about, I think what we've just learned is that the shipwreck data confirmed that Grant's skinny tree rings are in fact hurricanes, which means tree rings are now doubling the amount of hurricane data that we have? SPEAKER_05: Tripling. So, okay, so the hurricane data the government had at the beginning of all this went back to 1850, right? Then the tree rings extended it back to 1700. So they added like 150 years. But now the shipwrecks extended back even further all the way to 1495. Yeah. SPEAKER_06: 150 to 450 years. Yeah. Oh my God. SPEAKER_05: So these three tree ring scientists basically tripled all of the historical hurricane data that we had for the Caribbean just by like lining up these three different data sets. So after they gathered this data, they sent it off to the people who make the hurricane models that, you know, predict how hurricanes are going to develop in the future. So now those models can make better predictions, which could in turn, you know, save tons of money and lives. That is so cool. SPEAKER_06: Very cool. SPEAKER_05: Actually, this is, we're still just at the beginning of this story. So our tree ring scientists, they sent off this data to the hurricane modelers, but they also kept it for themselves because they're scientists. Trying to wring that sponge dry and get as much science out of that as possible. And they want to see what else can we notice here. Cut to a few months later. SPEAKER_06: I was staying in this really cheap motel in Flagstaff in Northern Arizona. SPEAKER_05: Valerie was actually on a research trip for a different tree ring project. But I was feeling really under the weather. SPEAKER_06: And so while I was staying in and getting bored out of my head because I couldn't go to field work, I went to a coffee shop. She's at the coffee shop. I ordered a coffee. I set myself at the window. And she's like, I'm just going to work here. SPEAKER_05: Pulled up the graph. The graph of the 300 years of shipwrecks, which also kind of stand in for the hurricanes. But anyway, she'd been toying around with it. She hadn't really found anything interesting in it yet. But then I went to grab my coffee and I went back from the counter towards my laptop. SPEAKER_05: She noticed something in the graph that she hadn't seen when she was looking at it up close. Just dip from 1645 to about 1715, where there were virtually no wrecks. SPEAKER_07: No wrecks. That feels not hurricaney. Yeah. SPEAKER_05: So like, kind of like a grace period or something like it was like a 70 years of almost no hurricanes. SPEAKER_06: And once you see it, you can't unsee it. SPEAKER_07: All the weathermen between 1645 and 715 were like, back to you, doc. Yeah. SPEAKER_06: So she's like, that's weird. What is, what is that period? SPEAKER_05: And the answer to that question, it does two things. It reveals the secret about the sun that you almost certainly did not learn in school. Okay. And it also shows how this moment, this 70 year stretch, this clear sky time of very few hurricanes sort of shaped the world we live in today. And we'll get to that after the break. SPEAKER_07: Lulu here. If you ever heard the classic Radiolab episode, sometimes behave so strangely, you know that speech can suddenly leap into music and really how strange and magic sound itself can be. We at Radiolab take sound seriously and use it to make our journalism as impactful as it can be. And we need your help to keep doing it. The best way to support us is to join our membership program, The Lab. This month, all new members will get a t shirt that says sometimes behave so strangely. To check out the t shirt and support the show, go to radiolab.org slash join. Radiolab is supported by Capital One with no fees or minimums. Banking with Capital One is the easiest decision in the history of decisions. Even easier than deciding to listen to another episode of your favorite podcast. And with no overdraft fees, is it even a decision? That's banking reimagined. What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See capital one dot com slash bank Capital One N.A. member FDIC. Radiolab is supported by Apple Card. Apple Card has a cash back rewards program unlike other credit cards. You earn unlimited daily cash on every purchase, receive it daily and can grow it at 4.15 annual percentage yield when you open a savings account. Apply for Apple Card in the wallet app on iPhone. Apple Card subject to credit approval. Savings is available to Apple Card owners subject to eligibility requirements. Savings accounts provided by Goldman Sachs Bank USA. Member FDIC terms apply. SPEAKER_04: After but her emails became shorthand in 2016 for the media's deep focus on Hillary Clinton's server hygiene at the expense of policy issues, is history repeating itself? SPEAKER_00: You can almost see an equation again, I would say, led by the times in Biden being old with Donald Trump being under dozens of felony indictments. SPEAKER_04: Listen to On the Media from WNYC. And on the media wherever you get your podcasts. SPEAKER_05: Lulu Lottiff Radiolab Lulu, why don't you just tell me what you have gotten? Where we are? Yeah, where we are. SPEAKER_07: OK, OK, OK, OK, OK. So we started a story. This is a story about a drunk idea with follow through. That's right. They woke up the next morning and actually went and chased it out. Nice. So these scientists have have chased down this wild idea. They've matched tree ring data with shipwreck data. It's allowed them to look deeper in the past than ever before at hurricanes. They discovered this weird lull, this time where there were less hurricanes. And then you were about to tell us how that lull shaped the modern world we live in today. SPEAKER_05: Right. So Valerie sees this lull and she's like, that's weird, but also familiar. SPEAKER_06: The dates were 1645 to 1725. I'm like, I know those dates somewhere from what is what is that period? It came to me pretty quickly. This period, this exact period is the Mounder minimum. SPEAKER_05: The Mounder minimum, also called the Mounder minimum. SPEAKER_07: OK, what the heck is a Mounder minimum? SPEAKER_06: It's a very well known period of low solar activity, a period when the sun was weak. Apparently the sun, the kind of solar radiation that comes from the sun, it's not constant. SPEAKER_05: What? SPEAKER_07: So there are periods when the sun is like, my burner's on high. My burner's on low? Yeah. SPEAKER_05: When the sun is at its peak, it's called maximum, at its lowest point, minimum. SPEAKER_07: Huh. So does that mean that during the Mounder minimum, it was actually colder? It was colder than yet. SPEAKER_05: And would it be darker or it would be just as bright? Just as bright. Just as bright, but just cooler. Yep, exactly. SPEAKER_06: I don't know if you've heard of the little ice age. I haven't. SPEAKER_05: It started at the beginning of the 14th century and lasted roughly 500 years. SPEAKER_06: And it's kind of the opposite of what we're experiencing now, right? Rather than glaciers retreating, you have glaciers advancing. SPEAKER_05: According to Valerie, the coldest period of that little ice age was the Mounder minimum. The fact that the sun didn't have as much energy contributed to it being colder. SPEAKER_06: And the colder temperature of that period might've meant cooler oceans, which in theory SPEAKER_05: could mean less hurricanes. Because the fuel that drives hurricanes is really warm at sea surface temperatures. SPEAKER_01: If you don't have that, you really don't have a hurricane. SPEAKER_07: So then that could explain why there were fewer shipwrecks during that time? Yeah. Hmm. That makes me feel weird. Why? SPEAKER_07: I just feel like for the deniers, for the human-caused climate change deniers, the phrase they bandied about all the time was like, no, there's natural cycles. It warms up, then it cools down. Yeah, natural cycles. SPEAKER_06: Can't predict the weather. Oh, they do say that. Yep. SPEAKER_07: Is this showing that the sun does play some kind of role in climate change? No, not at all. SPEAKER_05: This actually shows the opposite. Check this out. Record breaking temperatures. Record breaking heat waves. Dangerous heat waves. As we all know, in the last few years, we have had the hottest years in the history of our planet. Some heat wave. Unprecedented heat wave. It's really hot. It's going to be a brutal couple days. It's like we're setting records all over the place, right? Yep. SPEAKER_02: The winds are logging a sea of red as temperatures hit record high. SPEAKER_05: All of this has happened at a time when we're not even at a maximum yet. SPEAKER_07: We're in a week even though it's so hot? Yeah, exactly. SPEAKER_05: Right now, we're in the middle of a smaller 11-year solar cycle. We hit the minimum in 2019. We're still ramping up. A lot more heat is coming our way. SPEAKER_06: Oh, no. Yeah. SPEAKER_05: Okay, so back to the story. So Valerie was in the coffee shop. She saw the lull in the shipwreck data, and she recognized it as the Maunder Minimum. But when Grant looked at that same time period. Period of the Coldest Spirit of the Little Ice Age, 1645 to 1750. He recognized something else. The Golden Age of Piracy. SPEAKER_07: The Golden Age of Piracy? That's right. SPEAKER_05: The Golden Age of Piracy. Grant is a big fan of pirates. Has been ever since he was a kid. Turns out this is common knowledge among pirate nerds. But in almost these exact same years, there was an explosion in bands of pirates basically robbing and hijacking ships in the Caribbean specifically and in the Atlantic more broadly. Like, it was when piracy became, first of all, more common, but also like became way more culturally visible. Many of the most famous pirates you know of came out of this very period. SPEAKER_07: Are you going to tell me who? SPEAKER_05: Henry Morgan, aka Captain Morgan. Captain Morgan. He's real? SPEAKER_00: Yeah. They've captured a Spanish galleon. SPEAKER_05: And Bonnie and Mary Read. If I had a pistol, I'd shoot out your gizzard pin. SPEAKER_06: Blackbeard. SPEAKER_05: Blackbeard. I be Blackbeard. Huh. And even if you've never heard of any of those people, you've definitely heard of. Pirates of the Caribbean. Oh my gosh. SPEAKER_07: Really? SPEAKER_00: Yeah. You are without doubt the worst pirate I've ever heard of. SPEAKER_05: This is the age where the mythology of Pirates of the Caribbean emerged. This by the way is Matt Casey. I am a specialist in the 20th century history of Haiti and Cuba at the University of Southern Mississippi. He and Grant actually met on a bus on a field trip. Two hour bus, right? To New Orleans. And I'm not even sure that we talked the whole two hours, but very quickly within the conversation, we realized that we had a lot in common. Among the things, their love for the golden age of piracy. SPEAKER_05: And at some point Grant asked him, do you think that this lull in hurricanes that we found in our data could have caused the golden age of piracy? And I became really excited because yes, for a historian of the Caribbean, this just makes so much sense. Matt says, of course, there's no one cause for anything in history. There are a million explanations for the golden age of piracy. There are social reasons, political reasons, economic, cultural, all these different reasons why pirates were in ascendancy at this time. But the fact is, pirates spend a lot of time on the water. And so as fun as it is to see them as these kind of masters of the sea who just take a licking and can do whatever they want, they're absolutely vulnerable to the elements. Like hurricanes. So less hurricanes could mean a better environment for pirating. Yes. Hmm. But that was not my first thought. Matt Casey says when he looks at this period of time, this lull in hurricanes that lines up with the Mondra minimum, that lines up with the golden age of piracy, he sees it lining up with a whole other thing. This is the moment that shaped the history of the world in a way that people don't always recognize. The world? It sounds like an exaggeration, but that is not too hyperbolic. And this moment, Matt says, is? The sugar revolution. The sugar revolution. One of the first places where sugar production occurred on a large scale is in the Caribbean, probably 1620s or 1630s. It was this massively pivotal moment in world history, Matt says, where European plantation owners brought thousands of people against their will. Enslaved Africans, indentured Europeans. Out to these islands in the Caribbean. To produce sugar. On an enormous scale. People refer to a sugar plantation as a factory in a field. In 1650 and 1725, hundreds of thousands, by some accounts, nearly a million people were kidnapped to work in the Caribbean. Many died. Horrendous in the scale of human tragedy. And in roughly that same time period, sugar consumption in Europe quadrupled. That sugar produces massive amounts of wealth. So much so that European industrialization was actually paid for by how lucrative sugar was in the Caribbean. A lot of historians, including Matt, argue that the profits from the sugar plantations were the startup capital of industrial capitalism in England. And that these profits not only funded the industrial revolution, but essentially gave birth to modern capitalism itself. SPEAKER_05: And the way Matt sees it, part of what allowed for all of that to happen, the boom in sugar production, the expansion in slavery, the birth of capitalism, is this decades-long maunder minimum lull in hurricanes. It was a moment of calm weather that let the plantations flourish, the ships sail filled with pirates, but also enslaved people and sugar and money. This period of stability, it subtly enabled all of that to happen. SPEAKER_07: Okay, we're okay. Okay. What does this all have to do with trees? Right. SPEAKER_05: So trees is kind of the way they notice this subtle Rube Goldberg machine that has been playing out over centuries, right? Okay. Meaning what? SPEAKER_07: Yeah. What are the bells and whistles? SPEAKER_05: Right. Okay. So basically these three scientists in this bar, they use a combo of information they got from tree rings and information about shipwrecks to discover this 70-year period where the sun was dimmer, which somehow led to fewer hurricanes. And that 70-year period had this sort of disproportionate effect on agriculture, on basically slavery, on capitalism, on the way our modern world gets made. Maybe. This is all a big theory. And I think the thing that makes this story worth telling right now is like all of that, the Mondur minimum, their estimate is that that was about one degree Celsius of cooling. SPEAKER_05: And now we are doing this to ourselves, but like in the reverse. We are now the sun. Whereas the sun cooled the planet down by one degree, we are now turning up our own thermostat by two degrees, maybe. Can we keep it to two degrees? Like to me, it's like we're changing our climate and what new possibilities and even kind of what new cruelties like are we going to unleash? Are we going to open up? I don't know. I don't know if you can say for sure. It's unimaginable. SPEAKER_07: This story is just ramping my fear. Like does that give you anything other than just like make you want to lie down and... No, I think it does. SPEAKER_05: Like I think it's like, I think it's like, we're like meerkats, you know? How so? Like running around foraging for little grubs. And then every once in a while, like one of us stands up and looks around. Like that's to me what they did in the bar. Like it's like one of those moments of like standing up, looking around being like, whoa, there's a big picture here. SPEAKER_05: It takes those kinds of like bar, bus, whatever, wherever moments to like kind of sit back and be like, wait a second, all this stuff is connected. Like all of this stuff is like, we're trying to like divide up the world to make it comprehensible, but it's actually, it's all woven together. SPEAKER_07: This episode was reported by Latif Nasser with help from a Aketi Foster-Keys and Maria Paz-Gutierrez produced by Maria Paz-Gutierrez and Pat Walters with help from Aketi Foster-Keys and Sachi Kichijima-Mulki. SPEAKER_05: Mixed by Jeremy Blum with mixing help from Arianne Wack, fact checking by Natalie Middleton and edited by Pat Walters. SPEAKER_07: Big thanks this episode to Scott St. George, Nathaniel Millett, Michael Charles Stambaugh, and Justin Maxwell. SPEAKER_05: That's all from us. Thank you so much for listening. SPEAKER_07: Go thank a tree. SPEAKER_05: Go thank a tree. For its service to history. And for its shade that helps keep you cool by maybe one degree Celsius. Who knows? SPEAKER_07: Yeah. All right. SPEAKER_05: See you soon. Okay. SPEAKER_02: Bye bye. Radio Lab was created by Jad Abumrod and is edited by Soren Wheeler. Lulu Miller and Latif Nasser are our co-hosts. Dylan Keith is our director of sound design. Our staff includes Simon Adler, Jeremy Blum, Becca Bressler, Rachel Cusick, Aketi Foster-Keys, W. Harry Fortuna, David Gable, Maria Pascutieres, Sindunyana Sambandung, Matt Kielty, Annie McEwen, Alex Neeson, Sara Khari, Anna Vaskuet-Paz, Sarah Sandback, Arianne Wack, Pat Walters, and Molly Webster with help from Sachi Kichijima-Mulki. Our fact checkers are Diane Kelly, Emily Krieger, and Natalie Middleton. Hi, this is Jeremiah Barba and I'm calling from San Francisco, California. SPEAKER_03: Leadership support for Radio Lab science programming is provided by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Science Sandbox, Simon Foundation Initiative, and the John Templeton Foundation. Special support for Radio Lab was provided by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. SPEAKER_07: Radio Lab is supported by Capital One. With no fees or minimums, banking with Capital One is the easiest decision in the history of decisions. Even easier than deciding to listen to another episode of your favorite podcast. And with no overdraft fees, is it even a decision? Is banking reimagined? What's in your wallet? Terms apply. See Capital One dot com slash bank. Capital One N.A. member FDIC.